Stars at Maple Leafs 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Dallas Stars

▸2

Toronto Maple Leafs

FinalTV FS-SW, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 2-1. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jamie Benn's goal at 11:55 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 49% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.9 to 1.2; shots on goal were DAL 19, TOR 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 90% of the time. Anton Khudobin stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 2.9 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 17 of 19 (.895), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Anton Khudobin (31 saves, .969), 2. Tyler Seguin (2 A), 3. Patrick Marleau (1 G).

Three stars

★
A. Khudobin31 saves, .969
★★
T. Seguin2 A
★★★
P. Marleau1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	07	18	14	219
TOR	09	07	116	132

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

J. Benn(5)
T. Seguin (10), J. Klingberg (7)
tip-inxG 0.07win prob +18 pts
1-0
11:55

3rd period

D. Shore(3)
M. Janmark (1), T. Seguin (11)
wristxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
2-0
4:43
P. Marleau(2)PPG
J. Tavares (7), M. Rielly (12)
wristxG 0.28win prob +6 pts
2-1
16:51

Penalties

10 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

7:28Brett Ritchie · Holdingdrawn by Travis Dermott2 min

2nd

9:53Par Lindholm · Holdingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min
12:41Justin Holl · Holdingdrawn by Radek Faksa2 min
16:02Marc Methot · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

3rd

1:12Brett Ritchie · Holdingdrawn by Justin Holl2 min
5:30Jason Dickinson · Trippingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
16:29Brett Ritchie · Trippingdrawn by Par Lindholm2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TOR

Biggest swing: Jamie Benn, 2nd 11:55 — DAL 49% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.9 xG · 51 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.2 xG · 30 att TOR

1 G · 3.9 xG · 51 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.22 G
All situations: 1 G3.9; 0.82 G
Even strength: 0 G1.7; 0.20 G
Power play: 1 G2.1; 0.20 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

10%90%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.18 – 3.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

19
Shots on goal: 32; 63%
Faceoffs: 37%; 0/2
Power play: 1/5; 10
Penalty minutes: 4; 34
Hits: 18; 13
Blocked shots: 9; 7
Giveaways: 16; 9
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
23E. LindellD	0	0	0	+2	3	0.09	2	2	0	—	27:57
3J. KlingbergD	0	1	1	+2	2	0.10	3	2	0	—	24:17
4M. HeiskanenD	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	3	2	0	—	23:46
91T. SeguinC	0	2	2	+2	2	0.11	2	0	0	50	21:49
33M. MethotD	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	4	0	2	—	18:21
14J. BennL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.09	2	0	0	33	18:07
18T. PitlickC	0	0	0	0	0	0.08	4	1	0	0	17:24
15B. ComeauL	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	3	1	0	—	17:00
12R. FaksaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	86	16:45
13M. JanmarkC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.03	1	0	0	0	15:11
90J. SpezzaC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.03	0	0	0	50	14:55
17D. ShoreC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.10	0	1	0	50	14:14
45R. PolakD	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	5	1	0	—	13:58
43V. NichushkinR	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	2	2	0	—	12:10
6J. HonkaD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	11:51
16J. DickinsonC	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	1	1	2	86	10:01
25B. RitchieR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	6	—	07:23
46G. SmithC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	0	06:29

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35A. Khudobin(W)	32	31	1	.969	3.93	+2.93	60:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Oct 97@4Final
Nov 12@1this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score