Skip to content
Maple Leafs at Stars
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸7
Dallas Stars
4
FinalTV FS-SW, TSN4·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Dallas Stars 7-4. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Seguin's goal at 9:04 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 34% to 53%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.7 to 2.6; shots on goal were TOR 30, DAL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 1.4 goals below expected; Ben Bishop stopped 23 of 29 (.793), 3.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (1 G, 3 A), 2. Tyler Seguin (1 G, 3 A), 3. John Tavares (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    T. Seguin1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR21238210730
DALDAL11021519434

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    9:40
  2. DAL
    A. Radulov(3)
    T. Seguin (3), M. Heiskanen (1)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    17:23
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(6)
    K. Kapanen (2), M. Rielly (5)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    18:58

2nd period

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(3)
    E. Lindell (2), B. Bishop (1)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    9:04
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(7)PPG
    M. Rielly (6), M. Marner (4)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    3-2
    11:59
  3. TOR
    R. Hainsey(1)
    K. Kapanen (3), P. Lindholm (1)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    16:00
  4. TOR
    J. Tavares(5)PPG
    M. Marner (5), M. Rielly (7)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +6 pts
    5-2
    17:00
  5. DAL
    J. Benn(3)PPG
    A. Radulov (3), T. Seguin (4)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +7 pts
    5-3
    18:02

3rd period

  1. DAL
    J. Klingberg(2)
    A. Radulov (4), T. Seguin (5)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +16 pts
    5-4
    2:39
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(6)
    M. Marner (6), Z. Hyman (3)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    6-4
    4:55
  3. TOR
    C. Brown(1)EN
    M. Rielly (8), R. Hainsey (1)
    tip-inxG 0.90win prob +2 pts
    7-4
    16:40

Penalties

TOR 2 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

2nd

  • 11:20DALJamie Benn · Roughingdrawn by Nikita Zaitsev2 min
  • 13:26DALMiro Heiskanen · High stickingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 16:35DALRoope Hintz · Delaying game face off violation2 min
  • 17:43TORPatrick Marleau · Hookingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalTOR goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Tyler Seguin, 2nd 9:04 — DAL 34% → 53%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.17T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.16J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.14T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.13C. Carrick · On goal · xG 0.13T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.12R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.11T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.11M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.11R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.11A. Radulov · Goal · xG 0.10T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.10A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.09V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.08J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.08A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.06D. Shore · On goal · xG 0.06B. Comeau · Missed · xG 0.06J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.05T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.05M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.05J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.04D. Shore · Missed · xG 0.04B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03M. Janmark · Missed · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.03V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.03J. Spezza · Missed · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Klingberg · Goal · xG 0.02R. Polak · Missed · xG 0.02E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.02J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.02B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.01C. Carrick · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.00J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.00B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.00M. Methot · Missed · xG 0.00
DAL4 G · 2.6 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDAL
3.76 G
All situations
4 G2.6
2.34 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.52 G
Power play
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR55%45%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.81 – 2.54

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDAL
30
Shots on goal
34
47%
Faceoffs
53%
2/3
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
6
12
Hits
23
11
Blocked shots
15
10
Giveaways
17
11
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22N. ZaitsevD000+120.02210—22:12
44M. RiellyD044030.04110—20:33
51J. GardinerD000000.02110—20:10
23T. DermottD000+100.04000—18:58
16M. MarnerR134040.41010—18:49
91J. TavaresC202030.430103618:45
34A. MatthewsC202-140.390106218:30
2R. HainseyD112+220.07210—18:13
12P. MarleauC000010.0110210016:57
24K. KapanenR022+120.58000—16:44
92I. OzhiganovD000020.07000—16:25
11Z. HymanL011+110.12020—15:22
43N. KadriC000+130.330005015:15
26P. LindholmC011+200.081002013:46
28C. BrownR101+110.91000—12:45
63T. EnnisR000020.17110—12:19
33F. GauthierC000+100.001004412:00
32J. LeivoL000000.06210—11:58
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)34304.8822.57-1.4360:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).