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Sabres at Panthers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
Florida Panthers
▸4
FinalTV SUN, MSG-B·BB&T Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. The Panthers led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Colton Sceviour's goal at 10:59 of the first period, which took the Panthers' chances from 65% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.4 to 2.6; shots on goal were BUF 41, FLA 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Adam Wilcox stopped 14 of 14 (1.000), 1.2 goals saved above expected; James Reimer stopped 38 of 41 (.927). Three stars: 1. Vincent Trocheck (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jonathan Huberdeau (1 G), 3. Radim Vrbata.

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    V. Trocheck1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    J. Huberdeau1 G
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    R. Vrbata

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF010010321341
FLAFLA31201114427

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(27)PPG
    V. Trocheck (44), A. Ekblad (22)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    3:04
  2. FLA
    C. Sceviour(11)
    F. Vatrano (2)
    deflectedxG 0.29win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    10:59
  3. FLA
    N. Bjugstad(19)
    E. Dadonov (37), J. McCann (17)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +10 pts
    0-3
    13:39

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Pominville(16)
    E. Rodrigues (18), C. Mittelstadt (4)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +1 pts
    1-3
    15:30
  2. BUF
    S. Reinhart(25)
    B. Guhle (5)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +8 pts
    2-3
    15:51
  3. FLA
    V. Trocheck(31)EN
    C. Sceviour (13)
    tip-inxG 0.94win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    18:37
  4. BUF
    R. O'Reilly(24)PPG
    J. Eichel (39)
    wristxG 0.02
    3-4
    19:43

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·FLA 6 PIM

1st

  • 1:11BUFJosh Gorges · Trippingdrawn by Jared McCann2 min
  • 2:16BUFBrendan Guhle · Trippingdrawn by Henrik Borgstrom2 min
  • 8:37FLANick Bjugstad · High stickingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min

2nd

  • 9:25BUFScott Wilson · Trippingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min
  • 14:10FLANick Bjugstad · High stickingdrawn by Brendan Guhle2 min

3rd

  • 19:16FLARadim Vrbata · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalBUF goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Colton Sceviour, 1st 10:59 — FLA 65% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Trocheck · Goal · xG 0.93C. Sceviour · Goal · xG 0.29J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.28M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.21N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.17J. Huberdeau · Goal · xG 0.14J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.14R. Vrbata · On goal · xG 0.11N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.10A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.10M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.08V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.07K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.06N. Bjugstad · Missed · xG 0.06J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.06C. Sceviour · Missed · xG 0.06M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.06E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sceviour · Missed · xG 0.04N. Bjugstad · Missed · xG 0.04N. Bjugstad · Goal · xG 0.04M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.04M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.03R. Vrbata · On goal · xG 0.03V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.02R. Vrbata · On goal · xG 0.02J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.02M. Mamin · On goal · xG 0.02J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pysyk · Missed · xG 0.01N. Bjugstad · Missed · xG 0.01K. Yandle · Missed · xG 0.01R. Vrbata · Missed · xG 0.01C. Sceviour · Missed · xG 0.01C. Sceviour · On goal · xG 0.01M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.01K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.00K. Yandle · Missed · xG 0.00
FLA4 G · 3.4 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsFLA
2.63 G
All situations
3 G3.4
2.32 G
Even strength
2 G1.3
0.31 G
Power play
1 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF54%46%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.60 – 2.39

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsFLA
41
Shots on goal
27
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/3
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
11
Hits
6
12
Blocked shots
20
13
Giveaways
25
11
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD000020.04020—24:15
90R. O'ReillyC101040.200005824:06
6M. ScandellaD000020.05310—20:27
45B. GuhleD011-240.25102—19:59
15J. EichelC011040.140004019:52
23S. ReinhartC101040.39020018:57
8C. NelsonD000-220.08110—18:12
29J. PominvilleR101+130.32110—16:27
82N. BeaulieuD000+140.24000—15:56
92A. NylanderL000010.31000—15:44
21K. OkposoR000-120.11000—15:22
71E. RodriguesC011+140.19010015:16
37C. MittelstadtC011+120.190005015:13
4J. GorgesD000+110.04232—15:12
20S. WilsonC000-110.02002013:54
22J. LarssonL000-200.002107510:50
13N. BaptisteR000-110.06100—08:48
17J. NolanC000-200.00000007:19
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32A. Wilcox(L)141401.0001.24+1.2438:39
31C. Johnson1293.7501.20-1.8020:00

Season series

FLA leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).