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Panthers at Sabres
NHL

Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
▸4
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV FS-F, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-2. The Sabres scored first; the Panthers answered. The Panthers led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zemgus Girgensons's goal at 0:32 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 20% to 36%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.5 to 1.9; shots on goal were FLA 32, BUF 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Harri Sateri stopped 30 of 32 (.938), 0.5 goals saved above expected; Chad Johnson stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 2.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Keith Yandle (1 G, 2 A), 2. Denis Malgin (1 G), 3. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    K. Yandle1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    D. Malgin1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    R. O'Reilly1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA3160719432
BUFBUF11111209232

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    R. O'Reilly(14)PPG
    S. Reinhart (11), K. Okposo (21)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    7:02
  2. FLA
    K. Yandle(6)PPG
    A. Barkov (29), V. Trocheck (29)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    11:06
  3. FLA
    M. Matheson(6)PPG
    N. Bjugstad (14)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +11 pts
    2-1
    14:29
  4. FLA
    D. Malgin(8)
    K. Yandle (22), J. Huberdeau (32)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    18:11

2nd period

  1. BUF
    Z. Girgensons(5)SHG
    J. Larsson (6)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    0:32

3rd period

  1. FLA
    C. Sceviour(7)
    J. McCann (8), K. Yandle (23)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +8 pts
    4-2
    17:36

Penalties

FLA 35 PIM·BUF 47 PIM

1st

  • 5:30FLAJared McCann · Trippingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 10:22BUFJohan Larsson · Holding the stickdrawn by Denis Malgin2 min
  • 10:28BUFMarco Scandella · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 13:43BUFserved by N. Baptiste · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 19:02BUFEvander Kane · Hookingdrawn by Nick Bjugstad2 min

2nd

  • 2:42BUFVictor Antipin · Hookingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min
  • 8:53FLAMicheal Haley · Cross checkingdrawn by Casey Nelson2 min

3rd

  • 11:27FLAAaron Ekblad · Cross checkingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min
  • 17:59BUFEvander Kane · Interferencedrawn by Nick Bjugstad5 min
  • 17:59BUFEvander Kane · Misconductdrawn by Nick Bjugstad10 min
  • 17:59FLANick Bjugstad · Roughingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min
  • 17:59BUFEvander Kane · Roughingdrawn by Nick Bjugstad2 min
  • 19:25FLAAlexander Petrovic · Misconductdrawn by Jake McCabe10 min
  • 19:25BUFJake McCabe · Fightingdrawn by Alexander Petrovic5 min
  • 19:25BUFJohan Larsson · Cross checkingdrawn by Vincent Trocheck5 min
  • 19:25FLAAlexander Petrovic · Fightingdrawn by Jake McCabe5 min
  • 19:25BUFJohan Larsson · Match penatly 10 minutesdrawn by Vincent Trocheck10 min
  • 19:57FLAMicheal Haley · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:57FLAMicheal Haley · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Josh Gorges2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalFLA goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Zemgus Girgensons, 2nd 0:32 — BUF 20% → 36%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.27R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.14Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.12K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.12S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.12E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.11J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.10J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.10E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.09M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.08E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.08E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Girgensons · Goal · xG 0.08J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.07S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.06S. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.05J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.05J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.05S. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.05E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.04J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.04K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.04J. Nolan · Missed · xG 0.03R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.03C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.03R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.03J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.03N. Baptiste · On goal · xG 0.03C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.02J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02N. Baptiste · Missed · xG 0.02C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.02S. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.02C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.01R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01J. Nolan · Missed · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 2.5 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsBUF
1.94 G
All situations
2 G2.5
1.22 G
Even strength
0 G1.9
0.62 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA39%61%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.88 – 2.47

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsBUF
32
Shots on goal
32
56%
Faceoffs
44%
2/7
Power play
1/3
35
Penalty minutes
47
16
Hits
21
16
Blocked shots
5
3
Giveaways
2
3
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3K. YandleD123040.22000—26:16
19M. MathesonD101+130.06010—23:45
16A. BarkovC011010.090004822:01
21V. TrocheckC011030.380106021:33
5A. EkbladD000+110.05032—21:21
13M. PysykD000+130.06420—18:53
11J. HuberdeauL011030.16000—18:01
63E. DadonovL000-120.11000—16:05
7C. SceviourC101+120.2232010014:59
27N. BjugstadC011010.041025014:42
62D. MalginC101+130.27200014:31
17D. MacKenzieC000020.041007013:58
90J. McCannL011+100.000224012:53
6A. PetrovicD000000.001115—12:46
52M. WeegarD000020.16010—12:24
23C. BrickleyL000010.02200—10:30
78M. MaminC000010.01110009:56
18M. HaleyL000000.001214—09:51
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29H. Sateri(W)32302.9382.51+0.5160:00

Season series

FLA leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).