Oilers at Coyotes 4-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Edmonton Oilers

▸4

Utah Mammoth

FinalTV FS-A PLUS, SNW·Gila River Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Utah Mammoth 4-2. The Oilers came back from two goals down. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Darnell Nurse's goal at 3:57 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 48% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.1 to 1.6; shots on goal were EDM 27, ARI 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Al Montoya stopped 19 of 19 (1.000), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Antti Raanta stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Darnell Nurse (2 G), 2. Connor McDavid (2 A), 3. Josh Archibald (1 G).

Three stars

★
D. Nurse2 G
★★
C. McDavid2 A
★★★
J. Archibald1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	213	05	29	427
ARI	210	05	07	222

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

B. Richardson(2)
J. Chychrun (6), J. Martinook (8)
backhandxG 0.18win prob +11 pts
0-1
2:03
J. Archibald(2)
C. Dvorak (14), C. Keller (19)
wristxG 0.08win prob +14 pts
0-2
3:17
D. Nurse(4)
A. Larsson (2), J. Khaira (7)
slapxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
1-2
14:16
P. Maroon(10)
O. Klefbom (8), C. McDavid (34)
wristxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
2-2
19:22

3rd period

D. Nurse(5)
L. Draisaitl (24), C. McDavid (35)
slapxG 0.02win prob +27 pts
3-2
3:57
R. Nugent-Hopkins(16)EN
M. Lucic (19)
wristxG 0.88win prob +3 pts
4-2
19:40

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

5:48Richard Panik · Trippingdrawn by Oscar Klefbom2 min

3rd

16:11Milan Lucic · Trippingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: ARI

Biggest swing: Darnell Nurse, 3rd 3:57 — EDM 48% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 1.6 xG · 37 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 3.1 xG · 41 att ARI

2 G · 1.6 xG · 37 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.13 G
All situations: 2 G1.6; 1.73 G
Even strength: 2 G1.4; 0.50 G
Power play: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

63%37%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.24 – 1.59

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

27
Shots on goal: 22; 50%
Faceoffs: 50%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 27
Hits: 25; 13
Blocked shots: 10; 8
Giveaways: 3; 3
Takeaways: 10

Box score

every player line

Edmonton Oilers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
29L. DraisaitlC	0	1	1	+3	1	0.15	0	0	0	100	21:42
77O. KlefbomD	0	1	1	+1	3	0.06	1	3	0	—	21:30
97C. McDavidC	0	2	2	+1	3	0.38	0	0	0	44	21:00
83M. BenningD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	0	0	0	—	20:28
4K. RussellD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	2	0	—	20:20
19P. MaroonL	1	0	1	+2	3	0.46	0	0	0	—	19:48
2A. SekeraD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	0	—	18:47
25D. NurseD	2	0	2	+1	3	0.05	3	2	0	—	18:40
6A. LarssonD	0	1	1	+2	0	0.04	1	2	0	—	18:24
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.95	1	0	0	44	17:00
18R. StromeC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	0	0	0	29	15:32
27M. LucicL	0	1	1	0	4	0.65	3	0	2	100	15:24
16J. KhairaL	0	1	1	+1	0	0.12	5	1	0	40	14:59
13M. CammalleriL	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	1	0	0	—	14:16
98J. PuljujarviR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	0	—	13:09
44Z. KassianR	0	0	0	-1	3	0.08	3	1	0	—	09:42
55M. LetestuC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	0	60	08:46
91D. CaggiulaL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.10	3	0	0	—	08:43

Edmonton Oilers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35A. Montoya(W)	19	19	0	1.000	1.31	+1.31	56:33
33C. Talbot	3	1	2	.333	0.28	-1.72	03:17

Season series

EDM leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth

1st period

3rd period

1st

3rd

Box score