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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Ottawa Senators
▸6
FinalTV CBC, TVAS·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Dzingel's goal at 14:20 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 73% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 4.2 to 1.8; shots on goal were TOR 31, OTT 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 79% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 29 of 34 (.853), 1.4 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Derick Brassard (2 G, 1 A), 2. Mark Stone (2 G, 1 A), 3. Nate Thompson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    D. Brassard2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Stone2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    N. Thompson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR08011312331
OTTOTT113211311635

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    N. Thompson(1)
    A. Burrows (2), L. Brown (1)
    tip-inxG 0.19win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    12:01

2nd period

  1. OTT
    R. Dzingel(3)
    E. Karlsson (4), C. Wideman (2)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    14:20
  2. OTT
    D. Brassard(5)
    B. Ryan (6), E. Karlsson (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +7 pts
    0-3
    19:48

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. van Riemsdyk(5)
    R. Hainsey (5), C. Brown (2)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +4 pts
    1-3
    6:00
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(7)
    W. Nylander (6), R. Hainsey (6)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    2-3
    8:34
  3. OTT
    M. Stone(4)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.28win prob +14 pts
    2-4
    8:41
  4. TOR
    W. Nylander(3)PPG
    J. Gardiner (4), A. Matthews (5)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +8 pts
    3-4
    12:52
  5. OTT
    D. Brassard(6)
    M. Stone (4), E. Karlsson (6)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +8 pts
    3-5
    16:30
  6. OTT
    M. Stone(5)EN
    D. Brassard (4), D. Phaneuf (3)
    wristxG 0.52
    3-6
    18:21

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·OTT 4 PIM

1st

  • 4:33TORConnor Carrick · Slashingdrawn by Mark Stone2 min

2nd

  • 15:20TORserved by M. Marner · Delaying game bench face off violation2 min

3rd

  • 11:56OTTAlexandre Burrows · Interferencedrawn by Morgan Rielly2 min
  • 19:40OTTJohnny Oduya · Interferencedrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan Dzingel, 2nd 14:20 — OTT 73% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Stone · Goal · xG 0.52M. Stone · Goal · xG 0.28E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.27M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.23D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.20N. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.19M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.16B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.16L. Brown · On goal · xG 0.15M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.14M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.12R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.12M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.12M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.11E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.10K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.09D. Brassard · Goal · xG 0.09L. Brown · Missed · xG 0.09T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.09A. Burrows · Missed · xG 0.08M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.08L. Brown · Missed · xG 0.07A. Burrows · Missed · xG 0.07D. Brassard · Goal · xG 0.07R. Dzingel · Goal · xG 0.06J. Oduya · On goal · xG 0.06C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.06M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.05J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.04N. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04L. Brown · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.03D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.03J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.02C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.02M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.02N. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oduya · On goal · xG 0.01M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.01B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.00D. Phaneuf · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT6 G · 4.2 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
1.83 G
All situations
5 G4.2
1.52 G
Even strength
5 G3.0
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR21%79%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.78 – 3.57

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
31
Shots on goal
35
45%
Faceoffs
55%
1/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
24
Hits
16
11
Blocked shots
23
13
Giveaways
12
9
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
51J. GardinerD011-320.07000—23:19
22N. ZaitsevD000-300.03140—22:50
2R. HainseyD022020.05100—21:57
44M. RiellyD000010.07010—21:00
34A. MatthewsC112030.381003318:33
11Z. HymanL000030.24100—18:06
29W. NylanderR112020.090006717:19
28C. BrownR011000.000006716:03
12P. MarleauC000-330.0630010015:39
16M. MarnerR000-120.231105015:36
55A. BorgmanD000-120.03300—15:23
43N. KadriC000-340.191004515:22
42T. BozakC000+110.131004415:14
25J. van RiemsdykL101+140.15100—14:30
8C. CarrickD000-100.00022—14:15
47L. KomarovR000-410.01610—13:27
20D. MooreC000-210.020103809:48
15M. MartinL000-200.0541010008:39
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(L)34295.8533.65-1.3559:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).