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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Ottawa Senators
3
FinalTV CBC, TVAS2·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 4-3. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. The Senators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor Carrick's goal at 8:58 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.9 to 1.6; shots on goal were TOR 33, OTT 18. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 15 of 18 (.833), 1.4 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Gardiner (3 A), 2. Mark Stone (2 A), 3. Zach Hyman (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Gardiner3 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Stone2 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    Z. Hyman1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR11201239433
OTTOTT043806318

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    Z. Hyman(8)
    A. Matthews (15), J. Gardiner (19)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    7:26

2nd period

  1. OTT
    E. Karlsson(4)PPG
    M. Stone (25), R. Dzingel (6)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    3:08
  2. OTT
    M. Hoffman(12)
    C. Ceci (6), B. Ryan (13)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    7:12
  3. OTT
    T. Pyatt(6)SHG
    Z. Smith (8), M. Stone (26)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    1-3
    18:05

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(20)
    Z. Hyman (17), J. Gardiner (20)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    2:53
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(6)PPG
    J. Gardiner (21)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +23 pts
    3-3
    4:21
  3. TOR
    C. Carrick(3)
    L. Komarov (8), N. Kadri (11)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +32 pts
    4-3
    8:58

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·OTT 8 PIM

1st

  • 17:49OTTMark Borowiecki · Interferencedrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

2nd

  • 1:50TORAuston Matthews · High stickingdrawn by Cody Ceci2 min
  • 17:42OTTRyan Dzingel · Roughingdrawn by Andreas Borgman2 min
  • 17:42TORAndreas Borgman · Interferencedrawn by Ryan Dzingel2 min
  • 17:42OTTRyan Dzingel · Roughingdrawn by Andreas Borgman2 min
  • 19:38TORTyler Bozak · High stickingdrawn by Erik Karlsson2 min

3rd

  • 3:01OTTZack Smith · Slashingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Connor Carrick, 3rd 8:58 — TOR 48% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.24E. Karlsson · Goal · xG 0.19M. Hoffman · Goal · xG 0.11J. Oduya · On goal · xG 0.11T. Pyatt · Goal · xG 0.10B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.10B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.08R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.07M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.07M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.06M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.06M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.05A. Burrows · Missed · xG 0.05M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.05M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.04T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.04J. Oduya · Missed · xG 0.03T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.03B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.02D. Phaneuf · Missed · xG 0.02D. Phaneuf · Missed · xG 0.02M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oduya · On goal · xG 0.01C. White · On goal · xG 0.01M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.00M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.00G. Dumont · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 1.6 xG · 28 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
2.94 G
All situations
3 G1.6
2.43 G
Even strength
1 G0.9
0.51 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 69 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR74%26%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.83 – 1.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
33
Shots on goal
18
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/3
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
8
25
Hits
29
25
Blocked shots
16
8
Giveaways
13
7
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2R. HainseyD000000.00480—24:20
51J. GardinerD033020.04050—24:03
12P. MarleauC000+110.01040019:11
8C. CarrickD101+130.09000—18:57
28C. BrownR000010.14010—18:10
43N. KadriC011020.251005617:52
34A. MatthewsC112+140.740022017:48
29W. NylanderR000+140.400006017:37
46R. PolakD000020.09110—17:12
42T. BozakC000-120.212126017:09
47L. KomarovR011+110.083306016:54
23T. DermottD000+120.04210—16:37
11Z. HymanL112+130.39200—16:14
25J. van RiemsdykL000-120.14010—14:30
55A. BorgmanD000+100.01402—13:43
16M. MarnerR101-120.2520010012:17
33F. GauthierC000010.050005608:10
15M. MartinL000010.014005005:58
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)18153.8331.58-1.4260:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).