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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
FinalTV SN, TVAS·Air Canada Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tom Pyatt's goal at 16:55 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 48% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 5.9 to 3.9; shots on goal were OTT 32, TOR 48. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 45 of 48 (.938), 2.9 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 28 of 32 (.875). Three stars: 1. Craig Anderson (45 saves, .938), 2. Tom Pyatt (1 G), 3. Morgan Rielly (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    C. Anderson45 saves, .938
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Pyatt1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Rielly1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11211228432
TORTOR016116216348

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    T. Chabot(3)
    R. Dzingel (5)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    11:26

2nd period

  1. OTT
    M. Hoffman(11)
    M. Duchene (11)
    snapxG 0.25win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    1:52
  2. TOR
    A. Borgman(3)
    T. Bozak (15), L. Komarov (7)
    slapxG 0.01win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    18:10

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. van Riemsdyk(19)
    T. Bozak (16), M. Marner (26)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +24 pts
    2-2
    0:54
  2. OTT
    G. Dumont(1)
    F. Chlapik (2), A. Burrows (4)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +25 pts
    3-2
    2:15
  3. TOR
    M. Rielly(5)
    W. Nylander (23), R. Hainsey (14)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +35 pts
    3-3
    12:28
  4. OTT
    T. Pyatt(5)
    M. Duchene (12), Z. Smith (7)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +44 pts
    4-3
    16:55

Penalties

OTT 6 PIM·TOR 2 PIM

1st

  • 8:40OTTMatt Duchene · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 6:14OTTCody Ceci · Holdingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
  • 12:00OTTTom Pyatt · Hookingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 15:57TORLeo Komarov · Holdingdrawn by Derick Brassard2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Tom Pyatt, 3rd 16:55 — OTT 48% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.24M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.23J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.20N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.20A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.19L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.18J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.18W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.18J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.17M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.16P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.16J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.16P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.15J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.14A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.14T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.14R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.12M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.12J. van Riemsdyk · Goal · xG 0.11Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.10R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.10M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.10J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.09T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.09R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.09L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.09L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.08M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.08T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.08T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.07J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.07J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.07J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.07F. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.07J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.06J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.06L. Komarov · Missed · xG 0.05J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.05L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.05J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.04J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.03J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.03J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.03A. Borgman · On goal · xG 0.03L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.03A. Borgman · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.02J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.02J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.02C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01T. Bozak · Missed · xG 0.01R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.01A. Borgman · Goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.01R. Polak · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.01
TOR3 G · 5.9 xG · 73 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
3.94 G
All situations
3 G5.9
3.64 G
Even strength
3 G4.3
0.10 G
Power play
0 G1.6
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 115 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT23%77%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.72 – 5.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
32
Shots on goal
48
40%
Faceoffs
60%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
21
Hits
11
20
Blocked shots
8
14
Giveaways
8
7
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
65E. KarlssonD000020.09140—27:06
5C. CeciD000000.00242—26:39
2D. PhaneufD000-140.10220—22:12
61M. StoneR000020.331105021:42
67B. HarpurD000+200.00300—20:08
19D. BrassardC000+130.311102218:59
18R. DzingelC011+140.92000018:14
95M. DucheneC022+120.261325017:34
15Z. SmithC011-110.080106016:43
44J. PageauC000-220.410005516:21
68M. HoffmanC101+220.4620010015:59
36C. WhiteC000+100.00400014:09
10T. PyattL101030.33102—13:44
72T. ChabotD101020.12100—12:03
33F. ClaessonD000+120.12010—10:48
14A. BurrowsR011000.01100—09:11
40G. DumontC101010.271003306:35
78F. ChlapikC011020.070302005:53
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(W)48453.9385.92+2.9260:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).