NFL Market
Week 1 · book vs exchange
| Game | Book | Exchange | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 NENew England Patriots SEASeattle Seahawks | — | — | -3.5 | — |
 SFSan Francisco 49ers LARLos Angeles Rams | — | — | -0.5 | — |
 TBTampa Bay Buccaneers CINCincinnati Bengals | — | -9.483% | -0.5 | —1790k |
 NYJNew York Jets TENTennessee Titans | — | +2.841% | -2.5 | —1675k |
 BALBaltimore Ravens INDIndianapolis Colts | — | +10.316% | -3.5 | —2767k |
 ATLAtlanta Falcons PITPittsburgh Steelers | — | -2.861% | -4.5 | —2734k |
 BUFBuffalo Bills HOUHouston Texans | — | +2.343% | -2 | —5872k |
 CHIChicago Bears CARCarolina Panthers | — | +6.826% | +1.5 | —2854k |
 CLECleveland Browns JAXJacksonville Jaguars | — | -23.499% | -11.5 | —5963k |
 NONew Orleans Saints DETDetroit Lions | — | -1085% | -7.5 | —2343k |
 GBGreen Bay Packers MINMinnesota Vikings | -1.5o46.5 | -2.355% | -1.5 | -0.831642k |
 WSHWashington Commanders PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | -6o44.5 | -5.870% | -8 | +0.2749k |
 ARIArizona Cardinals LACLos Angeles Chargers | -9.5o47.5 | -8.981% | -8.5 | +0.6683k |
 MIAMiami Dolphins LVLas Vegas Raiders | -3o40.5 | -3.161% | +2 | -0.11494k |
 DALDallas Cowboys NYGNew York Giants | +3o47.5 | +3.140% | -1.5 | +0.111618k |
 DENDenver Broncos KCKansas City Chiefs | -2.5o43.5 | -2.456% | PK | +0.14647k |
14 of 16 games are quoted on the exchange. Spreads are home-relative — a negative number means the home team is favoured. Gap is the exchange minus the book on the same game: a disagreement between two venues, not a call by us. Model is ours — point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field, fitted on 1,087 games and scored on seasons it never saw. There is no “edge” column because we measured for one and did not find it: against the closing line over a full season our number went 133–133, and the closing line predicted the final margin more accurately than we did.