NFL Market

Week 1 · book vs exchange

Game	Book	Exchange	Model	Gap
NENew England PatriotsSEASeattle Seahawks Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM	—	—	-3.5	—
SFSan Francisco 49ersLARLos Angeles Rams Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM	—	—	-0.5	—
NONew Orleans SaintsDETDetroit Lions Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	-7o49.5	-775%	-7.5	01250k
NYJNew York JetsTENTennessee Titans Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	-1.5o39.5	-0.652%	-2.5	+0.9890k
BALBaltimore RavensINDIndianapolis Colts Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	+3o48.5	+2.941%	-3.5	-0.151390k
CHIChicago BearsCARCarolina Panthers Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	+3o47.5	+2.940%	+1.5	-0.091390k
CLECleveland BrownsJAXJacksonville Jaguars Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	-8.5o40.5	-8.980%	-11.5	-0.42493k
TBTampa Bay BuccaneersCINCincinnati Bengals Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	-3.5o50.5	-3.764%	-0.5	-0.17679k
BUFBuffalo BillsHOUHouston Texans Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	+1.5o44.5	+0.749%	-2	-0.753264k
ATLAtlanta FalconsPITPittsburgh Steelers Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	-6.5o40.5	-6.473%	-4.5	+0.131562k
GBGreen Bay PackersMINMinnesota Vikings Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM	-1.5o46.5	-2.355%	-1.5	-0.831367k
WSHWashington CommandersPHIPhiladelphia Eagles Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM	-6o44.5	-5.870%	-8	+0.2657k
ARIArizona CardinalsLACLos Angeles Chargers Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM	-9.5o47.5	-8.981%	-8.5	+0.6587k
MIAMiami DolphinsLVLas Vegas Raiders Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM	-3o40.5	-3.161%	+2	-0.11435k
DALDallas CowboysNYGNew York Giants Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM	+3o47.5	+3.140%	-1.5	+0.051470k
DENDenver BroncosKCKansas City Chiefs Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM	-2.5o43.5	-2.556%	PK	0613k

14 of 16 games are quoted on the exchange. Spreads are home-relative — a negative number means the home team is favoured. Gap is the exchange minus the book on the same game: a disagreement between two venues, not a call by us. Model is ours — point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field, fitted on 1,087 games and scored on seasons it never saw. There is no “edge” column because we measured for one and did not find it: against the closing line over a full season our number went 133–133, and the closing line predicted the final margin more accurately than we did.