Maiava Returns; San José State Must Rebuild Its Whole Passing Game
USC brings back the Big Ten's leading passer and a three-deep backfield; the Spartans arrive at the Coliseum with an open quarterback race and a receiver room stripped to the studs. The real questions are how big it gets — and how Long San José State can keep its defense on the field
FR
The Film Room
Matchups ·
13 min read
USC 98%
Projected favorite
to win
10–40
Projected score
San José State–USC
50
Projected total
line 58 · under 43%
8%
One-score game
decided by ≤3: 3%
When San José State walks into the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on opening night, it has to solve the two problems that decide whether a passing game functions at all — at the same time. The Spartans do not have a settled quarterback, and they do not have the receivers who made the position work a year ago. That is the story of this game before a single snap: a program remaking the entire spine of its offense against a
team that returns the most productive quarterback in the Big Ten. The Trojans are a five-touchdown favorite for a reason, and the reasons have names.
Jayden Maiava could have been an NFL draft pick. Instead he withdrew from the 2026 draft to come back for his senior year after leading the conference in passing — 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns in his first full season as a starter. San José State, meanwhile, is running an open four-way quarterback competition to replace Walker Eget, who transferred to Duke. One team knows exactly who takes the first snap and what he can do. The other is still deciding in July. In the season's opening week, that gap is nearly everything.
The quarterback gap is the whole game
Start with the only settled thing on the field. Maiava is a proven veteran, confirmed as the starter by Lincoln Riley, with RS senior Sam Huard behind him. He threw for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns last fall and rates a 96 out of 99. There is no ambiguity here.
Across the field, ambiguity is the entire situation. San José State's job is a genuine four-way scramble. The front-runner, by a slim margin, is Hawai'i transfer Luke Weaver — a fifth-year senior who threw for 628 yards and six touchdowns across just five games last season, barely any real FBS starting experience. Behind him are RS freshman Robert McDaniel, true freshman Daniel Rolovich, and Sam Houston transfer Xavier Ward. Head coach Ken Niumatalolo has called it close and does not expect to name a starter until deep into summer camp. Whoever wins inherits a receiver room he has never played a live down with. That is not a knock on any one player — it is the reality of asking a new quarterback to be sharp in Week 1 against a defense that has seen everything.
Likely starter
Why we project him
GIQ
San José State
Open competition — Luke Weaver leads
Open QB competition for 2026 after 2025 starter Walker Eget transferred to Duke.
76
USC
Jayden Maiava (returning)
Returning starter — highly productive
96
Projected starting quarterbacks (GIQ = our 0–99 player rating)
San José State's receiver room was gutted — and that changes everything
Here is the fact a glance at last year's numbers would hide. San José State's passing offense ranked a respectable-enough #81 in the country — but that ranking belonged to players who are gone. The Spartans lost roughly 2,760 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns out the door this offseason. Danny Scudero, who commanded about a third of the targets, transferred to Colorado. Kyri Shoels left for Utah. Leland Smith went to UCLA. Every proven pass-catcher of consequence, elsewhere.
The replacements are unproven in the most literal sense. The headline addition, San Diego State transfer Jerry McClure, caught exactly one pass for eight yards last fall. Projected outside starter Malachi Riley brings essentially no college production. So a new quarterback will be throwing to a corps that has almost never caught a college pass — and doing it against a USC pass rush that returns edge Braylan Shelby (4.5 sacks) and Kameryn Crawford (3.5) and finished #36 in the nation against the pass. Frame the matchup honestly — San José State's remade passing game against USC's coverage and rush — and it is not close. This is the single biggest reason the game figures to be one-sided.
Player
Last season → now
San José State
Steve Chavez-Soto (RB)
37% of carries → Utah
San José State
Danny Scudero (WR)
32% of targets → Colorado
San José State
Dylan Hampsten (DL)
39 tkl, 8.0 sacks → NFL/graduated
San José State
Michael Dansby (CB)
17 tkl, 1 INT → NFL/graduated
USC
Makai Lemon (WR)
27% of targets → NFL/graduated
USC
Ja'Kobi Lane (WR)
19% of targets → NFL/graduated
USC
Bishop Fitzgerald (S)
51 tkl, 1.0 sacks, 5 INT → NFL/graduated
USC
Eric Gentry (LB)
76 tkl, 3.0 sacks → NFL/graduated
Key departures — the production each side has to replace (and where it went)
History is blunt about this exact profile. Since 2014, when a big Power-conference host has faced a Group-of-Five team whose passing game was gutted at both quarterback and receiver — 122 such games — the favorite won 97.5% of the time, by an average of 36 points, holding the underdog to 10 or fewer in nearly 60% of them. Teams in San José State's precise position lose by roughly five touchdowns and rarely reach double digits. That is the tape.
USC's 'elite' pass offense is really a proven QB and a brand-New corps
Now flip the same lens onto USC, because the truth cuts both ways — just far less painfully. The Trojans owned the #4 pass offense in the country last year, but that label largely belonged to two players who are gone. Makai Lemon (27% of the targets) and Ja'Kobi Lane (19%) both moved on to the NFL. Nearly half of Maiava's air production walked out the door.
What USC rebuilds with is more pedigree than proof. NC State transfer Terrell Anderson (629 yards, 5 touchdowns in 2025, an 87 rating) is the most established newcomer. Tanook Hines (561 yards) is the lone proven holdover. Beyond them, USC breaks in five-star freshman tight end Mark Bowman — the crown jewel of a recruiting class that ranks #1 in the nation with 22 blue-chips — and unproven wideout Zacharyus Williams. It is a fresh room learning to play together. But the churn cuts USC's ceiling, not its floor: an elite offense that swaps out pass-catchers while keeping a proven quarterback stays dangerous, and Maiava is exactly the anchor that smooths over a shakedown period. Point him at San José State's #108 pass defense — a unit that also lost its two best defensive backs, including corner Michael Dansby (8 pass breakups) — and the arithmetic is lopsided even with a new receiver corps.
Player
Career grade
GIQ
USC
Terrell Anderson (WR, from NC State)
Above-average production for a WR
87
Notable incoming transfers — production vs. their position's average (GIQ = our 0–99 player rating)
What separates these two rosters
USC is favored by about 29 points; the betting line is a touch steeper, closer to a five-touchdown Trojan win. Peel the number apart and it is not one thing — it is a stack. The biggest single piece is last season's body of work: a 9-4 USC against a 3-9 San José State is worth about 17 points on its own. Roster talent — USC recruits at a top-20 level, the Spartans outside the top 100 — adds another seven. The settled quarterback edge is worth about three more, and home field at the Coliseum a few beyond that. San José State claws a sliver back through the transfer portal, where it actually broke even on star value while USC lost more than it added. Add it up and USC's number is comfortable, and thoroughly earned.
What separates USC and San José State
◄San José StatefavorsUSC►
Last season's body of worklast year's power rating, regressed toward the averageUSC +17
Roster talentoverall talent level of the roster — recruiting pedigree plus an independent preseason roster gradeUSC +7
Quarterbackthe projected starter's quality and how settled the job isUSC +3
Transfer portalnet proven talent gained vs lost in transfers — it raises or lowers a roster's projected strengthSan José State +2
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward USC are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
The matchup by possession
When USC has the ball, it holds an lopsided edge through the air — its #4 pass offense, even remade, against San José State's #108 pass defense — and a clear one on the ground. The USC backfield is the deepest, most veteran unit on the field: King Miller (972 yards, 8 touchdowns), Waymond Jordan (576 yards, 5 scores), and Eli Sanders are all back, three deep and built to grind. They run at a San José State front that lost its most disruptive player, defensive lineman Dylan Hampsten, and his eight sacks — the exact interior push a rebuilding front has to replace.
When San José State has the ball, its one flicker of an edge is on the ground. The Spartans return a genuine three-man committee — Jabari Bates (39% of the carries), Floyd Chalk IV (37%), and Lamar Radcliffe (31%) — and they run into a USC rush defense that ranked just #88 last year and is in flux, not simply bad. Gone are linebacker Eric Gentry and ball-hawking safety Bishop Fitzgerald (5 interceptions) to the NFL; in come edge Zuriah Fisher from Penn State and nose tackle Alex VanSumeren to shore up the front. Whether that rebuilt front holds up against the run is the lone crossing on the board that leans San José State's way — and it is slight. Everywhere else, the Trojans win comfortably.
Unit matchups: who wins each side of the ball
When San José State has the ball— its offense vs USC’s defense
Passing: San José State O #81 vs USC D #36USC · clear edge
Rushing: San José State O #64 vs USC D #88San José State · slight edge
◄ USC defense winsSan José State offense wins ►
When USC has the ball— its offense vs San José State’s defense
Passing: USC O #4 vs San José State D #108USC · overwhelming edge
Rushing: USC O #28 vs San José State D #71USC · clear edge
◄ San José State defense winsUSC offense wins ►
Read it by possession: each side shows what happens when that team has the ball — its offense against the other team's defense, unit by unit (national rank in parentheses). Based on last season; transfers in or out can shift these.
San José State's one real path — and it's on defense
If the Spartans are going to make this interesting, it will not be through the air and it will not be a shootout. Their blueprint is defense and clock, and the personnel to attempt it is real: linebacker Jordan Pollard (108 tackles, 2.5 sacks, an interception, a 90 rating), cornerback Jalen Bainer (3 interceptions, 5 pass breakups), and linebacker Taniela Latu (65 tackles) are the exact ball-hawking, downhill profile that can manufacture a takeaway. Pair that with the veteran run committee bleeding clock against USC's rebuilt front, and there is a coherent, if narrow, way to make the night ugly and low-scoring.
The mechanism is specific, and history spells it out. Among home favorites laying 33 to 38 points since 2014 — 331 games — the whole difference between a competitive night and a blowout was whether the underdog could hold the favorite down. When the favorite was held to 31 points or fewer, the game stayed within two scores 56% of the time; once the favorite reached 32 or more, that collapsed to 4%. That is the crack San José State has to pry at: keep USC in the low 30s or below, win the turnover battle, and hang around. Fittingly, turnover margin is the single biggest swing factor in this game.
Player
Last season
GIQ
San José State
Jalen Bainer (CB)
44 tkl, 1.0 sacks, 5 PD, 3 INT
85
San José State
Jordan Pollard (LB)
108 tkl, 2.5 sacks, 4 PD, 1 INT
90
San José State
Taniela Latu (LB)
65 tkl, 1.0 sacks, 3 PD, 1 INT
83
USC
Braylan Shelby (DE)
25 tkl, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT
90
USC
Kameryn Crawford (DE)
34 tkl, 3.5 sacks
86
USC
Christian Pierce (S)
58 tkl, 1.0 sacks, 3 PD
78
Returning defensive production — the disruptors who are back (GIQ = our 0–99 player rating)
The floor, the ceiling, and what swings it
The realistic range runs from lopsided to routine. The most likely night is a controlled USC runaway — a final near 38-10, the Trojans winning by 20 or more about three times in four. San José State's ceiling, a one-score game, sits at roughly 8%, and it lives entirely in the script above: a rattled early quarterback settling in, the Spartan defense forcing two takeaways, and USC's new receivers taking a quarter or two to click. The floor is grim: if Weaver — or whoever wins the job — is pressured into mistakes and USC's rushing attack sets the tempo, this is a running-clock rout by halftime.
What swings between those outcomes is turnovers, explosive plays, and whether USC finishes drives with touchdowns instead of field goals — in that order. None of it changes the winner; it changes only the size and the pace. One note for anyone who remembers the last meeting: these teams played in 2023, and USC won 56-28. That 28-point margin is right in line with everything here.
Every way the game could go
0%-38
0%-32
0%-24
0%-18
0%-10
2%-4
4%+4
8%+10
13%+18
18%+24
19%+32
16%+38
11%+46
San José State winsUSC wins
Market: USC −36Projected: USC by 29 (98%)
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward USC, the more likely USC wins.
A lower-scoring night than it looks
For all the talk of USC's offense, this shapes up as a ground-controlled game, not a track meet — about 50 combined points, comfortably under the market total near 58. That is by design: the two-front run emphasis — USC leaning on its three-deep backfield to salt the game away, San José State handing it off to shorten it — keeps the clock moving and the scoreboard from spiraling. In games shaped exactly like this one, the total went under about half the time, and the scoring often settles nearer 50 than 60. Expect Maiava to post a big number, expect Anderson, Bowman, and Williams to get their first real look together, and expect the final to land closer to the 40s than the high-50s.
How many points get scored
1%14
5%22
13%30
20%38
21%46
19%54
12%62
6%70
2%78
◄ lower scoringhigher scoring ►
Market total: 57.5Projected total: 50 (under 43%)
Where the combined score is likely to land — about 8 below the line of 58, a lower-scoring game than the line expects.
The bottom Line
USC wins this game, and wins it comfortably — the Trojans in front from the outset and home by roughly four touchdowns, something near 40-10, with the win itself close to a formality at 98%. The reasoning is simple and named: Maiava is a proven returning star, San José State is remaking its passing game from scratch at both quarterback and receiver, and the Spartans have to solve that against a USC pass rush built to punish it. The one thing that could keep San José State breathing into the fourth quarter is its own defense — Pollard, Bainer, and Latu manufacturing a turnover or two while the veteran backfield grinds clock to hold USC in the low 30s. It has kept games like this close before. It rarely keeps them close enough.
Scenario
Likelihood
USC wins
98%
One-score game (≤8)
8%
Decided by 3 or fewer
3%
Under 57.5
43%
Either team wins by 20+
75%
Most likely final
USC 38, San José State 10
How the game projects
Spread
We project USC by 29; the market is wider at 36, so the value is the points with San José State.
Total
We project 50 combined points, under the 58 total — the lean is the under.
Gridpex's desks are model-driven, AI-assisted columns. Every figure is generated from our own data and ratings — not invented. We don't fabricate reporters, quotes, or sources. Published Wed, Aug 26, 2026 · game-engine:deep-preview.
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Gridpex's desks are model-driven, AI-assisted columns; every figure is generated from our own data, not invented. Model estimates are for informational and entertainment purposes only — not betting advice. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Data: CollegeFootballData.
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