Maiava is Set at USC. San José State is Still Picking a Quarterback
USC has the one thing that decides mismatches like this — a proven senior quarterback — but a remade receiver room and a leaky run front hand San José State's veteran backfield something real to Chase
FR
The Film Room
Matchups ·
11 min read
USC 98%
Projected favorite
to win
10–40
Projected score
San José State–USC
50
Projected total
line 58 · under 43%
8%
One-score game
decided by ≤3: 3%
When San José State last walked into the Coliseum, in 2023, it walked out on the wrong end of a 56-28 afternoon. Almost nothing about the two rosters that meet again to open 2026 is the same — but the shape of the game rhymes, and it starts at the one position that decides mismatches like this.
has its quarterback. San José State does not yet know who its own will be.
Jayden Maiava withdrew from the NFL Draft to come back for his senior year, and he returns as the Big Ten's leading passer from a season ago — 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns, a full year of starting reps, and Lincoln Riley's public blessing as the guy. Ninety miles south, Ken Niumatalolo has spent the spring running a three-way race to replace Walker Eget, who took every meaningful snap in 2025 and then transferred to Duke. Hawai'i transfer Luke Weaver leads it, but he threw for just 628 yards in five games last fall, and returning redshirt freshman Robert McDaniel and true freshman Daniel Rolovich are still in the room — Niumatalolo may not name a starter until camp. A proven senior against a first-time trigger man breaking in on the road is the single biggest reason this one tilts the way it does.
The quarterback gap that frames everything
Likely starter
Why we project him
GIQ
San José State
Open competition — Luke Weaver leads
Open QB competition for 2026 after 2025 starter Walker Eget transferred to Duke.
76
USC
Jayden Maiava (returning)
Returning starter — highly productive
96
Projected starting quarterbacks (GIQ = our 0–99 player rating)
Start with the position that matters most. Maiava is a known commodity: a senior who threw essentially every USC pass last fall — 184 of the team's dropbacks, with no other Trojan attempting more than one — and did it well enough to lead his league. Weaver is a projection built on a thin résumé: five games at Hawai'i, six touchdowns, and a job he hasn't locked down. That gap is decisive, and the history is brutal. When a heavy Group of Five underdog breaks in a new quarterback against a Power-conference host, it loses by 21-plus more than three-quarters of the time and stays within a touchdown barely 9%. Settle the quarterback question and you settle most of this game — and San José State hasn't settled it.
USC's No. 4 pass offense is a résumé, not a returning unit
Player
Last season → now
San José State
Steve Chavez-Soto (RB)
37% of carries → Utah
San José State
Danny Scudero (WR)
32% of targets → Colorado
San José State
Dylan Hampsten (DL)
39 tkl, 8.0 sacks → NFL/graduated
San José State
Michael Dansby (CB)
17 tkl, 1 INT → NFL/graduated
USC
Makai Lemon (WR)
27% of targets → NFL/graduated
USC
Ja'Kobi Lane (WR)
19% of targets → NFL/graduated
USC
Bishop Fitzgerald (S)
51 tkl, 1.0 sacks, 5 INT → NFL/graduated
USC
Eric Gentry (LB)
76 tkl, 3.0 sacks → NFL/graduated
Key departures — the production each side has to replace (and where it went)
USC's passing game graded fourth in the country last season — but that number belonged to players who are gone. Makai Lemon (27% of the targets) and Ja'Kobi Lane (19%), the top two receivers, both left for the NFL, and so did tight end Lake McRee. Maiava is a proven passer throwing to a remade room: NC State transfer Terrell Anderson (39 catches, 629 yards, 5 touchdowns for the Wolfpack) steps in outside, returning slot man Tanook Hines is the one holdover with real production, and five-star freshman Mark Bowman headlines the nation's No. 1 recruiting class at tight end. That's a talented group, but a new one — and it means the reliable path to a USC rout runs on the ground, not through the No. 4 air ranking. History agrees: heavy favorites in exactly this spot, backfield intact but receivers rebuilt, still win by nearly four touchdowns, just on a quieter, more run-heavy scoreboard than the passing pedigree suggests.
The real USC engine: a three-headed backfield
Player
Last season
GIQ
San José State
Jabari Bates (RB)
39% of the carries last year
81
San José State
Floyd Chalk IV (RB)
37% of the carries last year
85
San José State
Lamar Radcliffe (RB)
31% of the carries last year
81
San José State
Malachi Riley (WR)
Projected starter — limited college production
—
USC
Waymond Jordan (RB)
42% of the carries last year
87
USC
King Miller (RB)
40% of the carries last year
78
USC
Eli Sanders (RB)
20% of the carries last year
90
USC
Mark Bowman (TE)
Projected starter — 5★ recruit, limited college production
—
USC
Zacharyus Williams (WR)
Projected starter — 3★ recruit, limited college production
—
Returning & projected offensive starters — who's back, plus the unproven names penciled in to start (GIQ = our 0–99 player rating)
While the receiver room turns over, USC's backfield returns whole — and that's the group that should control this game. Waymond Jordan (42% of the carries), King Miller (40%) and change-of-pace back Eli Sanders (20%) are all back, a rotation deep enough to grind out a lead and lean on it. When USC has the ball, its run offense (No. 28) faces a San José State front that ranked No. 71 against the run — a clear edge — while its passing attack, even remade, towers over a Spartans secondary that graded 108th against the pass and lost cornerback Michael Dansby to the NFL. Expect USC to open on the ground, build a comfortable margin, and let Maiava, Hines and Anderson find their timing against overmatched coverage as the afternoon wears on.
San José State's one live edge — and its ceiling
Unit matchups: who wins each side of the ball
When San José State has the ball— its offense vs USC’s defense
Passing: San José State O #81 vs USC D #36USC · clear edge
Rushing: San José State O #64 vs USC D #88San José State · slight edge
◄ USC defense winsSan José State offense wins ►
When USC has the ball— its offense vs San José State’s defense
Passing: USC O #4 vs San José State D #108USC · overwhelming edge
Rushing: USC O #28 vs San José State D #71USC · clear edge
◄ San José State defense winsUSC offense wins ►
Read it by possession: each side shows what happens when that team has the ball — its offense against the other team's defense, unit by unit (national rank in parentheses). Based on last season; transfers in or out can shift these.
The Spartans do own one matchup, and it's worth watching. When San José State has the ball, its run offense (No. 64) is the single crossing that grades in its favor — a genuine three-back committee in Jabari Bates (39% of the carries), Floyd Chalk IV (37%) and Lamar Radcliffe (31%) against a USC run defense that graded just No. 88 last year and was among the country's worst at run-blocking on that side of the ball. And that front is in flux, not simply bad: gone are its most disruptive interior man, Devan Thompkins (to Alabama), plus linebacker Eric Gentry and edge Anthony Lucas. In come nose tackle Alex VanSumeren from Michigan State and edge Zuriah Fisher from Penn State — a four-star rebuild whose ability to hold the point of attack is itself one of the game's real questions. But temper the excitement: this kind of edge decides the point total and the texture of the final score, not the winner. Ground games like this keep an underdog watchable and can pad the scoreboard; they don't flip the result.
The Spartans' vanished passing game
The reason San José State can't lean on more than its backs: the passing game was gutted. Beyond Eget, the Spartans lost their entire top receiving group to the portal — Danny Scudero, who caught 88 balls for nearly 1,300 yards and 10 scores, went to Colorado; Kyri Shoels left for Utah; Leland Smith for UCLA; lead back Steve Chavez-Soto (37% of the carries) for Utah too. Whoever wins the quarterback job will be a first-time starter with no veteran receiver to lean on, throwing against a USC secondary that generated 11 interceptions a year ago. That's why San José State projects to score in the low double digits and survive on the ground: there simply isn't a downfield answer. Teams fitting this exact profile — new quarterback, gutted receivers, heavy road underdog — have won about 4% of the time over the last decade, and never once against a Power-conference opponent.
What separates the two — and the one script that keeps it close
What separates USC and San José State
Last season's body of worklast year's power rating, regressed toward the averageUSC +17
Roster talentoverall talent level of the roster — recruiting pedigree plus an independent preseason roster gradeUSC +7
Quarterbackthe projected starter's quality and how settled the job isUSC +3
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward USC are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
The separation isn't one thing; it's a stack. The biggest piece is simply last season's body of work — USC went 9-4 and scored 35.8 a game; San José State went 3-9 and gave up 32.5 — and that alone is worth about 17 points of the gap. Roster talent adds another seven (USC signed the nation's top-rated recruiting class; the Spartans rank in the triple digits), and Maiava over an open Spartans competition adds three more. The one ingredient that tilts San José State's way is the transfer portal, where the Spartans broke even while USC lost more star value than it added — a small counterweight against a very large stack. Add home field at the Coliseum and it comes to USC by about 29. The betting line is steeper, closer to a five-touchdown Trojans win.
The one Way San José State hangs around
What the game turns on
Turnover margin4 pts
Explosive-play edge3 pts
Red-zone TDs vs FGs2 pts
Field-position / special teams2 pts
How far each factor swings the win probability when it breaks one way vs the other. The top bar is the X-factor — the thing most worth watching.
If San José State is going to hang around longer than expected, it won't be by outplaying USC — it'll be by catching a USC that beats itself. The biggest swing factor here is turnovers, and the Trojans have a soft spot to exploit: they lost their two most disruptive takeaway defenders, safety Bishop Fitzgerald (five interceptions) and corner DeCarlos Nicholson, both to the NFL. The Spartans, meanwhile, return their two best defenders — ballhawk corner Jalen Bainer (three picks, five pass breakups) and tackling-machine linebacker Jordan Pollard (108 stops). If Bainer and Pollard force a young-mistake day out of a USC offense breaking in new receivers, and the Spartans protect the ball, this can drift past a touchdown into the second half. That's the realistic long shot — a sloppy, low-20s USC afternoon — not a path to the upset.
The range of outcomes
Every way the game could go
0%-38
0%-32
0%-24
0%-18
0%-10
2%-4
4%+4
8%+10
13%+18
18%+24
19%+32
16%+38
11%+46
San José State winsUSC wins
Market: USC −36Projected: USC by 29 (98%)
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward USC, the more likely USC wins.
Lay it all out and the picture is lopsided but not without texture. The floor for USC is still a comfortable win: the Trojans take this by 20 or more roughly three times in four, and the most likely final sits around USC 38, San José State 10. The ceiling is a runaway — a four-or-five-touchdown blowout with USC cruising into the fourth quarter untroubled. The competitive tail is thin: a one-score game shows up only about 8% of the time, a three-point finish just 3%. What swings between blowout and merely comfortable is San José State's run game and USC's ball security. If VanSumeren and Fisher hold the point of attack and Maiava plays clean, this slides toward the blowout; if the Spartans move it on the ground and steal a takeaway or two, they can shave the margin and push the total up without ever seriously threatening the result.
The betting angle
Spread
We project USC by 29; the market is wider at 36, so the value is the points with San José State.
Total
We project 50 combined points, under the 58 total — the lean is the under.
Betting angle
Bottom Line
USC has the quarterback, the backfield and the talent, and it's playing at home — expect a comfortable Trojans win by roughly four touchdowns, something in the neighborhood of 38-10, with a genuine chance it turns into a rout. San José State's veteran run game against a leaky, rebuilt USC front is the one edge that keeps the game watchable and can nudge the score, but it threatens the margin, not the outcome. The only thing that keeps this within a touchdown is a turnover-fueled, mistake-filled USC afternoon — and Bainer and Pollard are the kind of players who could force one. Bank on it running the other way. Everything about this matchup, from the quarterback certainty to a decade of nearly identical results, points to USC controlling it from the opening drive.
Gridpex's desks are model-driven, AI-assisted columns. Every figure is generated from our own data and ratings — not invented. We don't fabricate reporters, quotes, or sources. Published Wed, Aug 26, 2026 · game-engine:deep-preview.
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Gridpex's desks are model-driven, AI-assisted columns; every figure is generated from our own data, not invented. Model estimates are for informational and entertainment purposes only — not betting advice. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Data: CollegeFootballData.
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