Akron vs Wake Forest Prediction, Picks & Odds — Sep 3, 2026

Akron and Wake Forest have never played. No series, no film, no grudge, just an opener in Winston-Salem that both sides need for different reasons. Wake Forest's edge traces mostly to last season, a 9-4 year that outweighs the talent gap, the quarterback edge and the transfer haul put together. Almost none of that team is back. The Deacons return 14% of last year's production, bottom-fifth in the country. Akron returns 91.8%, fifth-most in FBS, and that figure is a backfield number: 84% of the rushing yards are back, 3.5% of the passing yards.

Wake Forest projects to five wins across 11 FBS games, with only Akron and Stanford rating more than three points below the Deacons; the bowl math runs through this Saturday and FCS Merrimack in Week 10. Akron is chasing something older. The Zips are 0-11 against power-conference opponents since 2019, averaging 7.8 points, and the last one they won was 2018 at Northwestern.

◄AkronfavorsWake Forest►

Last season's body of worklast year's power rating, regressed toward the averageWake Forest +9

Returning productionhow much of last year's production is back this seasonAkron +7

Roster talentoverall talent level of the roster — recruiting pedigree plus an independent preseason roster gradeWake Forest +3

Quarterbackthe projected starter's quality and how settled the job isWake Forest +2

Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Wake Forest are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).

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Two quarterbacks, neither of whom has thrown a Pass for these teams

Gio Lopez arrives from North Carolina on his third school with 572 pass attempts over the last two seasons: 2,557 yards and 18 touchdowns at South Alabama in 2024, plus 465 rushing yards and seven scores, then 1,747 yards and 10 touchdowns in 11 games at Chapel Hill. He replaces Robby Ashford, who threw for 2,472 yards, ran for 554 more and is out of eligibility. Ashford's legs were Wake's best run game, and Lopez brings that threat with him. The only other Deacon who attempted a pass in 2025 is Steele Pizzella, who threw one.

Reese Poffenbarger has thrown 14 passes in two years, seven at Miami in 2024 and seven at North Texas in 2025; Akron is his fifth school since 2022. This is not a camp battle: Joe Moorhead's staff signed him in January to start, and he has been alone atop the depth chart since spring. The last time he was anybody's starter was 2023 at FCS Albany, where he threw for 3,603 yards and 36 touchdowns. He inherits an offense that lost Ben Finley, who took 362 of Akron's 404 attempts and threw 19 touchdowns. The only Zip left with an FBS attempt is Brayden Roggow, and he has 91 career passing yards.

When Akron has the ball: Gant against the one front that held

Jordan Gant took 213 carries for 1,032 yards and six touchdowns in his first FBS season, handling roughly half of Akron's carries and closing with 556 yards over the final six games. He was at FCS Tennessee State in 2024, where he ran 62 times for 223 yards. On paper his line is back too: holdovers Ian Falkner, Amarie Archer, Colin Lyons and Allen Jones Jr., with Southern Miss transfer Carlos Slayden penciled in at right guard. The churn underneath is heavy: four linemen left this winter, Maasai King to Iowa State and Kenneth McManus IV to Auburn among them, replaced by Saint Francis and South Dakota imports. Even with Gant's 1,000 yards, the Zips' ground game ranked 119th of 136.

It runs into the one unit here whose personnel held. Wake Forest's run defense finished 10th nationally, and its 86 tackles for loss ranked 10th as well. The line that produced that is intact: Langston Hardy (65 tackles, seven sacks), Gabe Kirschke (32 tackles, four sacks), Dallas Afalava and nose tackle Zach Lohavichan. The second level is brand new. Leading tackler Nick Andersen (95 stops) is gone, as are linebackers Dylan Hazen and Quincy Bryant. Frank Cusano and Aiden Hall are the projected starters, with California transfer Buom Jock and UAB's Tylan McNichols behind them, and that is where a veteran back finds yards if he finds any.

Watch first down. If Gant is regularly getting past four yards on the first snap of a series, Akron bleeds clock and holds the possession count down. If the new linebackers fit the run cleanly behind Hardy and Kirschke, the Zips are throwing with a quarterback making his first start in three years and no proven target. Kyan Mason (33 catches, 481 yards) is the most experienced receiver left; Marcel Williams (45-641) is off the roster and Israel Polk (33-525-8) is at Oklahoma State, and those two caught 10 of Akron's 20 receiving touchdowns.

When Akron has the ball— its offense vs Wake Forest’s defense

Passing: Akron O #98 vs Wake Forest D #11Wake Forest · clear edge

Rushing: Akron O #119 vs Wake Forest D #10Wake Forest · big edge

◄ Wake Forest defense winsAkron offense wins ►

When Wake Forest has the ball— its offense vs Akron’s defense

Passing: Wake Forest O #64 vs Akron D #57Akron · slight edge

Rushing: Wake Forest O #66 vs Akron D #26Akron · slight edge

◄ Akron defense winsWake Forest offense wins ►

Read it by possession: each side shows what happens when that team has the ball — its offense against the other team's defense, unit by unit (national rank in parentheses). Last season's grades, shrunk toward average by how much of each unit's production actually returns. Akron returns 90% of last season's passing production and 100% of its rushing production. Wake Forest returns 18% of last season's passing production and 5% of its rushing production. Akron's projected line: 4 of 5 held over, 1 portal; Wake Forest's projected line: 2 of 5 held over, 3 portal.

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When Wake Forest has the ball: an explosive offense without its explosions

Wake Forest ranked fifth in the country at generating big plays last season and 80th overall, a boom offense that struggled to sustain drives and finished 113th in points per scoring trip inside scoring range. The players who supplied the booms are gone. Sawyer Racanelli (315 receiving yards) graduated; Sterling Berkhalter (416) is at Texas, Chris Barnes (547) at Oklahoma State, Micah Mays Jr. (302) at Florida, 1,808 yards out the door with eight receivers entering the portal. Running back Demond Claiborne, who took 45% of the carries for 905 yards and 10 touchdowns, left too. The Deacons return 13% of last year's receiving production.

Carlos Hernandez (40 catches, 611 yards) is the returning target of consequence, himself a 2025 arrival from Washington State. Tight end Kamrean Johnson is back, as is running back Ty Clark III (17 catches, 209 yards), joined by Florida transfer KD Daniels. The most intriguing name isn't penciled in anywhere. UTEP transfer Wondame Davis Jr. caught 25 passes for 604 yards and six touchdowns at 24.2 a catch out of an offense as explosive as Wake's, and he sits on the roster but on neither the depth chart nor the transfer table. Kam Shanks (62 catches at UAB in 2024) works the slot, with Duke's Chase Tyler and Cal tight end Landon Morris behind. The outside job opposite Hernandez is unresolved.

Since 2015, 42 top-25 explosive offenses have opened the next season with 35% or less of their receiving production back. Eighty-six percent of them scored fewer points than the year before, and only a quarter were still a top-25 explosive offense. The 128 comparable offenses that kept 60% or more of their receivers scored the same as ever.

Akron is about the friendliest opponent available for working through that. The Zips' pass defense ranked 57th and returns 17% of it: Elijah Reed is at Utah, Bruno Dall (four sacks, six breakups) at UCF, and Malcolm DeWalt IV (eight breakups) and CJ Nunnally IV (five sacks) are gone. Catrell White and Terence Thomas project at corner, and the new front-seven starters came from Division II (edge Kurtis Waye) and FCS (tackle Vaughn Highland).

Pressure that never became takeaways

Wake Forest broke up 51 passes last season, 15th in the country, and intercepted four, 121st of 136. All four belonged to Jamare Glasker, and he is gone, along with Nick Andersen, Tayshaun Burney (10 breakups) and Karon Prunty (eight). Strong safety Davaughn Patterson (78 tackles, nine breakups) and nickel Braylon Johnson are the only experienced pieces left in the back seven. Deuce Blades II, Rushaun Tongue and Georgia State transfer Bernard Causey III step into the rest.

They should get chances. Akron surrendered 30 sacks on 428 dropbacks a year ago, roughly twice the rate Wake allowed, and the Deacons return their top two sackers in Hardy and Kirschke, 11 of the team's 25. Poffenbarger is going to throw off his back foot at some point, and whether that new secondary catches anything is the difference between a comfortable afternoon and a nervous one: the team that wins the giveaway battle takes about three of every four games (75.2%, n=7,903 since 2014), and games with a gap this wide are no different (75.1%, n=614).

What each side needs to beat the number

The betting line is Wake Forest by 23.5, steeper than the 12-point margin projected here, and getting there asks four things of the Deacons. They have to score on nearly every possession, a genuine points-per-chance day from an offense that ranked 113th in exactly that a year ago and returns about 11% of the production behind that grade. They have to avoid the slow start that keeps this a one-score game into the third quarter, the likeliest of their boxes to check. They have to win the turnover battle by two or more, which happens in only 23% of outcomes and is a long shot. And a boom-or-bust offense that settles for field goals caps its own margin.

Akron's checklist is shorter and more achievable. Winning or tying the turnover column is a likely outcome, since the even-turnover game is by far the most common version of this matchup and the one the Zips survive. The rest is a reach: long clock-eating drives, a low-scoring afternoon, an extra possession stolen on fourth down or special teams. Akron has no unit edge to exploit, so tempo control is the plan, and it depends on Gant moving the chains against a top-10 run defense.

The Zips' criteria are the more achievable stack: keeping the turnover column clean and the possession count down is ordinary football, while a mistake-free, score-every-drive rout from a rebuilt offense is not.

The bottom Line

Akron's floor is the version where Gant gets stonewalled on early downs and Poffenbarger has to win it through the air: mid-teens at best, and a Deacon lead that grows every quarter. Someone wins by 20 or more in 34% of outcomes, and Wake owns nearly all of that tail. The Zips' ceiling is the low-possession game they will chase, with the total around 50. This finishes inside one score 32% of the time, and the 80% range runs from Akron by 8 to Wake Forest by 31.

Wake Forest wins this by about 12, roughly 31-19, and takes it about four times in five. Lopez is the most accomplished quarterback on the field, and Hardy and Kirschke anchor the only intact unit. The swing between the poles is short fields: if Gant is getting four yards a crack on first down and Poffenbarger keeps the ball out of Wake's hands, Akron drags this into the fourth quarter as a one-score game. Hand over two giveaways and the Deacons pull away by three touchdowns before the middle of the third.

0%

-38

0%

-32

1%

-24

3%

-18

6%

-10

11%

-4

15%

+4

18%

+10

17%

+18

14%

+24

8%

+32

5%

+38

2%

+46

Akron winsWake Forest wins

Market: Wake Forest −24Projected: Wake Forest by 12 (77%)

The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Wake Forest, the more likely Wake Forest wins.

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