@ Minnesota · Wk 3Win prob 12%Model +18.7Schedule & Results
WAKEWake ForestL16-38✓Wk 2vsROMORobert MorrisW45-10✓Wk 3@MINNMinnesota+18.712%Wk 4vs
UNLVUNLV+6.435%Wk 5@
CMUCentral Michigan-1.554%Wk 6vs
EMUEastern Michigan-4.059%Wk 7@
M-OHMiami (OH)+2.843%Wk 8@
KENTKent State-4.662%Wk 10vs
OHIOOhio+0.748%Wk 11vs
WMUWestern Michigan+5.038%Wk 12@
MASSMassachusetts-19.490%Wk 13vs
BUFBuffalo-12.679%Team Leaders
Cibastian BroughtonPassing338 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT- Cibastian BroughtonRushing153 yds · 0 TD · 5.7 avg
Sean PatrickReceiving6 rec · 76 yds · 1 TD
Donelius JohnsonTackles15 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Akron
All news →Carlos Hernandez went for 165 receiving yards for Wake Forest
Jordan Gant Runs at the One Wake Forest Unit That Stayed
Roster · 106 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Brayden Roggow | QB | SO | 6'4" | 205 | Tiffin, OH |
| 7 | Reese Poffenbarger | QB | SR | 6'1" | 215 | Middletown, MD |
| 10 | Semaj Beals | QB | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 11 | Cibastian Broughton | QB | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Orange Park, FL |
| 18 | Johnny Brookhart | QB | JR | 5'11" | 205 | Parker, CO |
| 1 | Jordan Gant | RB | SR | 5'10" | 205 | Lakeland, FL |
| 13 | Sean Patrick | RB | SO | 5'11" | 180 | Chagrin Falls, OH |
| 24 | Marquese Williams | RB | JR | 5'9" | 180 | Harrisburg, PA |
| 25 | Chris Gee | RB | JR | 5'10" | 210 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 26 | Taven Curry | RB | SR | 6'0" | 215 | Loxley, AL |
| 28 | Luke Reed | RB | SO | 5'10" | 190 | Garfield Heights, OH |
| 2 | Marcel Williams | WR | SO | 5'11" | 200 | Hollywood, FL |
| 3 | Kyan Mason | WR | SO | 5'9" | 155 | Cleveland, OH |
| 4 | Miles Burris | WR | JR | 6'3" | 205 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 5 | Titus Myers | WR | JR | 6'2" | 180 | Statesville, NC |
| 8 | Brandon Hills | WR | JR | 5'10" | 180 | Colorado Springs, CO |
| 9 | Jean Louis III | WR | JR | 5'8" | 185 | New York, NY |
| 12 | Cameron Monteiro | WR | SO | 6'1" | 190 | Brockton, MA |
| 14 | Luke Sivon | WR | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Perry, OH |
| 15 | Jaborree Riggins | WR | FR | 6'3" | 185 | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 16 | Paul Davis | WR | SO | 6'0" | 200 | Bowman, GA |
| 80 | Jalen Hightower | WR | SO | 5'11" | 190 | — |
| 82 | Troy Hazuda | WR | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Oregon, OH |
| 87 | Gentz Hilburn | WR | SO | 5'10" | 195 | Jersey City, NJ |
| 88 | Dominic Monz | WR | SO | 5'7" | 175 | Mcdonald, PA |
| 23 | Yaseen DeReese | TE | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Titusville, FL |
| 81 | Nick Wilson | TE | SO | 6'1" | 225 | Cleveland, OH |
| 83 | Elijah Alexander | TE | SO | 6'4" | 235 | Oakland, CA |
| 84 | Wyatt Hook | TE | SO | 6'6" | 265 | Saratoga, CA |
| 85 | Conner Cravaack | TE | JR | 6'4" | 245 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 50 | Allen Jones Jr. | OL | SR | 6'4" | 290 | Cottonwood, AL |
| 51 | Jason Hoskins | OL | JR | 6'3" | 345 | Dover, DE |
| 52 | Nate Hampton | OL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Bowie, MD |
| 53 | Alex Fox | OL | SR | 6'3" | 290 | New Castle, PA |
| 55 | Amarie Archer | OL | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Nassau |
| 56 | Brandon Smith | OL | JR | 6'2" | 310 | Waldorf, MD |
| 57 | Ian Falkner | OL | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Collierville, TN |
| 61 | Jon Stephens | OL | SO | 6'3" | 285 | Simmes, AL |
| 62 | Max Mobley | OL | JR | 6'2" | 290 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 63 | August Weight | OL | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Medina, OH |
| 68 | Jonathan Gould | OL | FR | 6'5" | 270 | Maize, KS |
| 70 | Melvin Puckett | OL | SO | 6'3" | 300 | Paducah, KY |
| 71 | Carlos Slayden | OL | SR | 6'4" | 300 | Corpus Christi, TX |
| 72 | Colin Lyons | OL | SR | 6'3" | 295 | Mckeesport, PA |
| 73 | Jonas Mann | OL | SO | 6'7" | 310 | Pickerington, OH |
| 75 | Dayne Shor | OL | JR | 6'5" | 325 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 77 | Lorvens Barthelemy | OL | FR | 6'4" | 325 | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 78 | Daxton Christman-Gourley | OL | SO | 6'6" | 275 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 79 | Nick Stopiak | OL | SR | 6'6" | 315 | Columbia Station, OH |
| 16 | Dahvon Frazier | DE | SO | 6'2" | 230 | Lexington, KY |
| 50 | Jahvon Frazier | DE | SO | 6'3" | 230 | Lexington, KY |
| 56 | Omari Abor | DE | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Duncanville, TX |
| 90 | Kurtis Waye | DE | SR | 6'4" | 240 | Mcdonough, GA |
| 92 | Israel Duncan | DE | SR | 6'2" | 240 | Vancouver, WA |
| 96 | Brandon Tobias II | DE | SO | 6'5" | 250 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 97 | Vann Kavals | DE | FR | 6'5" | 265 | Coraopolis, PA |
| 1 | Cyrus Durham | DL | JR | 6'3" | 245 | Atherton, CA |
| 5 | Ronald Hull | DL | JR | 6'2" | 300 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 8 | Jon'Trell Mixon | DL | JR | 6'4" | 285 | Youngstown, OH |
| 44 | Jasun Ridley | DL | JR | 6'2" | 260 | Pasadena, CA |
| 51 | Omari Bivens | DL | FR | 6'0" | 255 | Lewis Center, OH |
| 57 | Elijah Davis | DL | SO | 6'1" | 300 | Middletown, OH |
| 65 | Logan Hindmarch | DL | FR | 5'9" | 240 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 93 | Ty Watkins | DL | FR | 6'5" | 240 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 94 | Malakai Ross-Graves | DL | JR | 6'3" | 280 | Santa Cruz, CA |
| 99 | Jaiden Brown-Demery | DL | FR | 6'4" | 310 | West Mifflin, PA |
| 52 | Vaughn Highland | DT | SR | 6'1" | 315 | Pennsville, NJ |
| 55 | Jalen Williams | DT | SR | 6'6" | 340 | Shreveport, LA |
| 7 | Jeremiah Jones | LB | JR | 6'0" | 235 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 18 | Dwight Nunoo | LB | SR | 6'1" | 230 | Grand Prairie, TX |
| 19 | Eddie Smith III | LB | JR | 6'0" | 230 | Winchester, CA |
| 23 | Daunte Curtis | LB | FR | 6'1" | 205 | Pickerington, OH |
| 25 | Jason Hocker | LB | SO | 6'0" | 230 | Lexington, KY |
| 31 | Gavin James | LB | FR | 6'0" | 220 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 32 | Donelius Johnson | LB | SR | 6'0" | 225 | Patterson, GA |
| 34 | Cam Macon | LB | SR | 5'11" | 220 | Barberton, OH |
| 42 | Jude Buchanan | LB | SR | 6'1" | 235 | Vancouver, BC |
| 45 | Devin Reeves | LB | FR | 6'0" | 235 | Quantico, VA |
| 4 | Zach Hobson | CB | SR | 6'3" | 195 | Dallas, TX |
| 11 | Dawayne Galloway Jr. | CB | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Columbus, OH |
| 17 | Caiden Newsome | CB | JR | 6'0" | 180 | Baltimore, MD |
| 22 | Henry Perrymond | CB | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Cleveland Heights, OH |
| 24 | Savion Lewis | CB | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Cleveland, OH |
| 3 | Alex Branch | DB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Twinsburg, OH |
| 9 | Aamii Branch | DB | JR | 5'10" | 180 | Forney, TX |
| 12 | Iesa Jarmon | DB | SR | 6'0" | 185 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 14 | Khory Moss | DB | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Nassau |
| 20 | Mehki Flowers | DB | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Harrisburg, PA |
| 21 | Catrell White | DB | JR | 5'11" | 175 | New York, NY |
| 27 | Keyveon Johnson | DB | SO | 6'2" | 185 | Sunrise, FL |
| 29 | Tairan Davis Jr. | DB | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Youngstown, OH |
| 30 | Terry Lee Jr. | DB | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Chicago, IL |
| 35 | Rod Smith Jr. | DB | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Tyrone, GA |
| 43 | Austin Wondolowski | DB | JR | 5'10" | 205 | North Royalton, OH |
| 2 | Daymon David | S | SR | 6'0" | 210 | Gwynn Oak, MD |
| 6 | Jamari Somerville | S | JR | 5'11" | 195 | Indian Head, MD |
| 13 | Rodrick Hunter | S | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Atlanta, GA |
| 15 | Terence Thomas | S | SR | 5'9" | 190 | Boardman, OH |
| 37 | Aidan Stire | PK | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Morgantown, WV |
| 40 | Jordan Westrich | PK | SO | 5'11" | 170 | Peoria, AZ |
| 47 | Matthew Schramm | PK | SO | 5'9" | 180 | Dublin, OH |
| 95 | Joseph Castle | P | SR | 6'2" | 205 | North Huntingdon, PA |
| 36 | Charlie Volpe | LS | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Plantation, FL |
| 41 | Stone Dean | LS | JR | 6'3" | 220 | Elkins, AR |
| 49 | Frank Miner | LS | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Seattle, WA |
| — | Marcel Williams | — | — | — | — | — |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Akron is in year 5 under Joe Moorhead, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 119th at running it, and they are 118th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Akron has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#119projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#118projected
- Offensefirst and second down#110projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.67#22
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.76 / 1.37
- Power / stuff (off)
- 60.0% / 16.3%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 16.8%#61
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 10.1% / 6.7%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.07#108 | 0.39#41 | 0.38#94 |
| Defense | -0.22#27 | 0.37#115 | 0.78#120 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2148th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1431st
- Offense success rate52%84th
- Defense success rate allowed35%63rd
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs55%80th
- Offense success — passing downs44%88th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs37%75th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs32%26th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness0.972nd
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.59th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.817th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.511th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.891st
- Defense line yards allowed1.892nd
- Offense highlight yards1.153rd
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.035th
- Offense power success0.8065th
- Defense power success allowed0.6556th
- Offense stuff rate0.1375th
- Defense stuff rate0.3094th
Third down
- Third down conversion48%64th
- Third down distance faced6.466th
- Third down conversion allowed44%24th
- Third down distance forced6.729th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1466th
- Net success rate — second half0.2087th
Drives
- Points per drive1.740th
- Points per drive allowed3.715th
- Average starting field position238th
- Opponent starting field position3039th
- Available yards gained46%41st
- Available yards allowed76%8th
- Scoring opportunities per drive70%29th
- Scoring opportunities allowed100%12th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.443rd
- Points allowed per opportunity3.726th
- Three-and-out rate30%39th
- Three-and-outs forced0%7th
Roster
- Returning usage94%97th
- Returning EPA15964th
- Team talent composite54712th
- Recruiting class rank1334th
- Recruiting class points1474th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.038 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 55.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 53.7%
- Over expected
- +2.1
- Fourth down vs peers
- -17
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Akron is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Akron in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 42% | 5.0 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 3.5 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 17% | 3.8 | -1.8 |
| 2022 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 17% | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 17% | 2.7 | -0.7 |
| 2020 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 17% | 1.8 | -0.8 |
| 2019 | 0-12 | 0-8 | 0% | 1.4 | -1.4 |
| 2018 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 2.9 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 7-7 | 6-3 | 50% | 5.3 | +1.7 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 4.3-7.8. Wins the Mid-American in 1.1%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
down 0.0 points since preseason — lost 16-38 to Wake Forest against an expected margin of −29, so +6.7 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 0% where the average Mid-American team is 2.5%.
- The Mid-American takes 0.07 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.
Akron’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk3at Minnesota0.1
- wk11vs Western Michigan0.0
- wk4vs UNLV0.0
- wk7at Miami (OH)0.0
- wk10vs Ohio0.0
- wk5at Central Michigan0.0
Who to root for
Games Akron is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk5UTEP over New Mexico0.0
- wk5Middle Tennessee over Kansas0.0
- wk6Iowa State over BYU0.0
- wk4UAB over Navy0.0
- wk7Kentucky over Oklahoma0.0
- wk5Purdue over Illinois0.0
Mid-American
0-0 in league play, projected 3.0-5.010 of 13 by title oddsThe Mid-American sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk11Western Michigan at Akron5.3
- wk7Akron at Miami (OH)3.3
- wk3Akron at Minnesota2.6
- wk10Ohio at Akron2.6
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mid-American race →
If not the playoff, then
Akron is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.4% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl5.6%
- Arizona Bowl5.5%
- Salute to Veterans Bowl4.0%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl2.4%
- Boca Raton Bowl1.6%
- 68 Ventures Bowl1.6%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 10 have sent Akron a player since 2010 — 18 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Akron's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.