Georgia Southern vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsAPP
- Q4 3:20APPMaquel Haywood 27 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)27–55
- Q4 8:12GASOMichael Lantz 34 Yd Field Goal 28–48
- Q4 14:42GASODeAndre Buchannon 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Michael Lantz Kick)24–48
- Q4 14:56APPKaedin Robinson 10 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)17–48
- Q3 6:38APPAnderson Castle 15 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)17–41
- Q3 13:16APPEli Wilson 2 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)17–34
- Q2 0:00APPMichael Hughes 28 Yd Field Goal 17–27
- Q2 0:55APPChristan Horn 41 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)17–24
- Q2 2:33GASOMichael Lantz 38 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 7:19APPKanye Roberts 13 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)14–17
- Q2 7:35APPKaedin Robinson 27 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)14–10
- Q1 0:25GASOKhaleb Hood 25 Yd pass from JC French (Michael Lantz Kick)14–3
- Q1 4:03APPMichael Hughes 24 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:44GASOOJ Arnold 3 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDavis Brin 24/34, 238 YDS, 3 INT
- RushOJ Arnold 16 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKhaleb Hood 10 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJoey Aguilar 23/36, 296 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushKanye Roberts 14 CAR, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKaedin Robinson 8 REC, 108 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAPP up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 552 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:25GASO +21%
JC French pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 25 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
- Q2 7:35APP +20%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 27 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
- Q2 7:19APP +19%
Kanye Roberts run for 13 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
- Q1 12:44GASO +17%
OJ Arnold run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
- Q2 0:55APP +17%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 41 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
- Q2 2:33GASO +12%
Michael Lantz 38 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. App State?
Georgia Southern 27, App State 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (APP) was correct.
| GASO | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 360 | Total yards | 532 |
| 277 | Passing yards | 296 |
| 83 | Rushing yards | 236 |
| 20 | First downs | 29 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 26/39 | Comp/Att | 23/36 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 7.2 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-70 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 30:44 | Possession | 29:16 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:40 GASO punt on 4th & 4 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.43 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:20APPMaquel Haywood 27 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)27–55
- Q4 8:12GASOMichael Lantz 34 Yd Field Goal 28–48
- Q4 14:42GASODeAndre Buchannon 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Michael Lantz Kick)24–48
- Q4 14:56APPKaedin Robinson 10 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)17–48
- Q3 6:38APPAnderson Castle 15 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)17–41
- Q3 13:16APPEli Wilson 2 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)17–34
- Q2 0:00APPMichael Hughes 28 Yd Field Goal 17–27
- Q2 0:55APPChristan Horn 41 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)17–24
- Q2 2:33GASOMichael Lantz 38 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 7:19APPKanye Roberts 13 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)14–17
- Q2 7:35APPKaedin Robinson 27 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)14–10
- Q1 0:25GASOKhaleb Hood 25 Yd pass from JC French (Michael Lantz Kick)14–3
- Q1 4:03APPMichael Hughes 24 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:44GASOOJ Arnold 3 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (APP Elo 1631, GASO Elo 1416 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects APP -11 (77% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesApp State leads 14–10 · Georgia Southern has won 3 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| GASO | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#97) | CORE overall | +3.3 (#49) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | +8 / +5 |
| 2.21 | points / drive | 2.47 |
| 2.45 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +16 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →