Louisiana vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsUSA
- Q4 0:16USAJamaal Pritchett 39 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–20
- Q3 1:07ULKendre' Gant 55 Yd Fumble Return (Kenneth Almendares Kick)33–14
- Q3 3:17ULJacob Kibodi 56 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares PAT failed)26–14
- Q3 6:09USALa'Damian Webb 25 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)20–14
- Q3 7:32ULKenneth Almendares 42 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q3 11:53USAJamaal Pritchett 6 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)17–7
- Q2 2:10ULKenneth Almendares 20 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 8:15ULNeal Johnson 3 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Kenneth Almendares Kick)14–0
- Q2 12:58ULJacob Bernard 33 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Kenneth Almendares Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 6.6
- PassZeon Chriss-Gremillion 13/17, 145 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJacob Kibodi 23 CAR, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- RecPeter LeBlanc 2 REC, 37 YDS
- PassCarter Bradley 29/49, 381 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushLa'Damian Webb 16 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJamaal Pritchett 11 REC, 168 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,040 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:15UL +26%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Neal Johnson for 3 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
- Q3 6:09USA +24%
La'Damian Webb run for 25 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
- Q2 12:58UL +21%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 33 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
- Q3 3:17UL +19%
Jacob Kibodi run for 56 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares PAT MISSED)
- Q3 7:32UL +18%
Kenneth Almendares 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 11:53USA +17%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 6 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. South Alabama?
Louisiana 33, South Alabama 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UL | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 348 | Total yards | 498 |
| 145 | Passing yards | 381 |
| 203 | Rushing yards | 117 |
| 19 | First downs | 25 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 13/17 | Comp/Att | 29/49 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 6-40 | Penalties | 8-71 |
| 34:44 | Possession | 25:16 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:10 UL field goal on 4th & 1 at USA 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:16USAJamaal Pritchett 39 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–20
- Q3 1:07ULKendre' Gant 55 Yd Fumble Return (Kenneth Almendares Kick)33–14
- Q3 3:17ULJacob Kibodi 56 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares PAT failed)26–14
- Q3 6:09USALa'Damian Webb 25 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)20–14
- Q3 7:32ULKenneth Almendares 42 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q3 11:53USAJamaal Pritchett 6 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)17–7
- Q2 2:10ULKenneth Almendares 20 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 8:15ULNeal Johnson 3 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Kenneth Almendares Kick)14–0
- Q2 12:58ULJacob Bernard 33 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Kenneth Almendares Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1716, UL Elo 1537 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA -9.6 (75% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#32 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #24 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Louisiana leads 10–4 · 43% have been one-possession games
| UL | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9 (#66) | CORE overall | +11.0 (#30) |
| +7 / +8 | offense / defense | +6 / -5 |
| 2.57 | points / drive | 2.80 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 1.71 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →