Iowa State vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ISUTeam statsCIN
- Q4 10:00ISUStevo Klotz 13 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz Kick)30–10
- Q3 1:10ISUChase Contreraz 30 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q3 4:03CINCarter Brown 36 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 10:45ISUChase Contreraz 34 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 3:43ISUBenjamin Brahmer 14 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz Kick)17–7
- Q2 7:48ISURocco Becht 2 Yd Run (Chase Contreraz Kick)10–7
- Q1 0:42CINChamon Metayer 20 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)3–7
- Q1 5:31ISUChase Contreraz 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassRocco Becht 15/25, 241 YDS, 2 TD
- RushEli Sanders 16 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecJayden Higgins 6 REC, 172 YDS
- PassEmory Jones 14/26, 96 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushEmory Jones 15 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecChamon Metayer 4 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsISU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,179 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:48ISU +22%
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)
- Q2 3:43ISU +21%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 14 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)
- Q1 0:42CIN +19%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 20 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)
- Q3 10:45ISU +9%
Chase Contreraz 34 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 5:31ISU +8%
Chase Contreraz 30 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 4:03CIN +7%
Carter Brown 36 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. Cincinnati?
Iowa State 30, Cincinnati 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CIN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ISU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 364 | Total yards | 214 |
| 241 | Passing yards | 99 |
| 123 | Rushing yards | 115 |
| 17 | First downs | 15 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 15/25 | Comp/Att | 15/29 |
| 9.6 | Yards per pass | 3.4 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-55 | Penalties | 6-49 |
| 33:40 | Possession | 26:20 |
Costliest call
Q2 15:00 ISU go for it on 4th & 5 at CIN 15. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.50 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:00ISUStevo Klotz 13 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz Kick)30–10
- Q3 1:10ISUChase Contreraz 30 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q3 4:03CINCarter Brown 36 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 10:45ISUChase Contreraz 34 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 3:43ISUBenjamin Brahmer 14 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz Kick)17–7
- Q2 7:48ISURocco Becht 2 Yd Run (Chase Contreraz Kick)10–7
- Q1 0:42CINChamon Metayer 20 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)3–7
- Q1 5:31ISUChase Contreraz 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1577, ISU Elo 1540 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CIN -3.9 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#30 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #73 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| ISU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.2 (#36) | CORE overall | -7.4 (#93) |
| +1 / -7 | offense / defense | -1 / +7 |
| 2.31 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 2.77 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →