Georgia Southern vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsTROY
- Q4 2:37GASOMalik Murray 32 Yd pass from Shai Werts (Tyler Bass Kick)28–49
- Q4 3:50TROYTrevon Woolfolk 12 Yd Run (Tyler Sumpter Kick)21–49
- Q4 5:31TROYDK Billingsley 70 Yd Run (Tyler Sumpter Kick)21–42
- Q4 9:37TROYReggie Todd 7 Yd pass from Kaleb Barker (Kaylon Geiger Pass to Kaleb Barker for Two-Point Conversion)21–35
- Q4 14:54GASODarion Anderson 26 Yd pass from Shai Werts (Tyler Bass Kick)21–27
- Q2 0:00TROYTyler Sumpter 23 Yd Field Goal 14–27
- Q2 2:44TROYTyler Sumpter 24 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q2 6:38GASOMalik Murray 33 Yd pass from Shai Werts (Tyler Bass Kick)14–21
- Q2 9:22TROYTray Eafford 15 Yd pass from Kaleb Barker (Tyler Sumpter Kick)7–21
- Q2 12:10GASOWesley Kennedy III 41 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:53TROYDK Billingsley 18 Yd Run (Tyler Sumpter Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:54TROYBret Clark 13 Yd pass from Kaleb Barker (Tyler Sumpter Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GASO lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassShai Werts 8/16, 181 YDS, 3 TD
- RushWesley Kennedy III 10 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalik Murray 3 REC, 95 YDS, 2 TD
- PassKaleb Barker 27/41, 330 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushDK Billingsley 14 CAR, 163 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKaylon Geiger 7 REC, 110 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTROY up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:54GASO +18%
Shai Werts pass complete to Darion Anderson for 26 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
- Q1 12:54TROY +17%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 13 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
- Q4 9:37TROY +16%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 7 yds for a TD (Kaylon Geiger pass to Kaleb Barker for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q2 6:38GASO +14%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 33 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
- Q2 9:22TROY +14%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 15 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
- Q2 12:10GASO +14%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 41 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Troy?
Georgia Southern 28, Troy 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
| GASO | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 333 | Total yards | 603 |
| 181 | Passing yards | 330 |
| 152 | Rushing yards | 273 |
| 16 | First downs | 27 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 8/16 | Comp/Att | 27/42 |
| 11.3 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 8.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 6-64 |
| 35:03 | Possession | 24:57 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:37 GASO go for it on 4th & 12 at TROY 30. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.66 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:37GASOMalik Murray 32 Yd pass from Shai Werts (Tyler Bass Kick)28–49
- Q4 3:50TROYTrevon Woolfolk 12 Yd Run (Tyler Sumpter Kick)21–49
- Q4 5:31TROYDK Billingsley 70 Yd Run (Tyler Sumpter Kick)21–42
- Q4 9:37TROYReggie Todd 7 Yd pass from Kaleb Barker (Kaylon Geiger Pass to Kaleb Barker for Two-Point Conversion)21–35
- Q4 14:54GASODarion Anderson 26 Yd pass from Shai Werts (Tyler Bass Kick)21–27
- Q2 0:00TROYTyler Sumpter 23 Yd Field Goal 14–27
- Q2 2:44TROYTyler Sumpter 24 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q2 6:38GASOMalik Murray 33 Yd pass from Shai Werts (Tyler Bass Kick)14–21
- Q2 9:22TROYTray Eafford 15 Yd pass from Kaleb Barker (Tyler Sumpter Kick)7–21
- Q2 12:10GASOWesley Kennedy III 41 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:53TROYDK Billingsley 18 Yd Run (Tyler Sumpter Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:54TROYBret Clark 13 Yd pass from Kaleb Barker (Tyler Sumpter Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TROY Elo 1422, GASO Elo 1426 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TROY -2.2 (57% to win) — 4.7 points clear of TROY's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#42 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #99 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Troy leads 5–4 · Troy has won 2 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| GASO | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.3 (#67) | CORE overall | -6.7 (#89) |
| -4 / -2 | offense / defense | +5 / +12 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 2.49 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.76 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -29 | pass over expected | +15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →