#7Kaleb Barker

QB·Troy·20195.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kaleb Barker is a Clutch Passer for Troy. Kaleb's 2019 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 527 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kaleb Barker's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

299/460 Comp/Att3628 Pass yards30 Pass TD10 INT65.0% Comp %

Rushing

137 Rush yards2 Rush TD86 Carries1.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency8
Volume100
Dual-Threat42
Consistency71
Clutch74

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.55 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Texas State (SP+ -16).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsCampbell	W43-14	—	18/29	282	2	0	83.5	4	0	0.52
3	vsSouthern Miss	L42-47	-4.8	29/43	504	4	0	84.7	-19	0	0.54
4	@Akron	W35-7	-29.8	27/37	214	3	1	89.5	42	1	0.33
5	vsArkansas State	L43-50	-2.9	34/58	384	4	1	54.7	9	0	0.28
6	@Missouri	L10-42	7.8	15/26	92	1	2	19.1	1	0	-0.25
8	vsSouth Alabama	W37-13	-20.3	20/30	194	2	2	71.0	36	0	0.30
9	@Georgia State	L33-52	-10.5	34/45	421	2	0	70.3	-5	0	0.37
10	@Coastal Carolina	L35-36	-12.8	26/35	385	3	0	—	8	1	0.49
11	vsGeorgia Southern	W49-28	-4.5	27/41	330	3	1	—	36	0	0.44
12	@Texas State	W63-27	-16.2	30/43	363	6	0	—	2	0	0.55
13	@Louisiana	L3-53	9.6	15/32	178	0	2	—	14	0	-0.24
14	vsApp State	L13-48	11.3	24/41	281	0	1	—	9	0	0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

59.8%

Passing plays

94.0%

Rushing plays

16.2%

Standard downs

54.2%

Passing downs

74.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.27
Passing downs: 0.44
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / 0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 36 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.