| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WYO | 0 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 20 |
| COLO | 0 | 21 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (COLO Elo 1604, WYO Elo 1339) plus home-field advantage. That projects COLO -13 (83% to win), essentially in line with the market.
COLO up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Wyoming 20, Colorado 37.
Yes — the model's pick (COLO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had COLO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Sincere Brown for 68 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
Samuel Harris run for 50 yds to the COLO 34 for a 1ST down
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 29 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
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