| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WYO | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| AF | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (AF Elo 1354, WYO Elo 1337) plus home-field advantage. That projects AF -3.1 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Wyoming 21, Air Force 24.
Yes — the model's pick (AF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had AF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Evan Svoboda pass intercepted Roger Jones Jr. return for no gain to the AF 20
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Samuel Harris for 25 yds to the AF 47 for a 1ST down
Kade Frew 9 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
