Wyoming vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WYOTeam statsAF
- Q4 1:02WYOMichael Fitzgerald 13 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)21–24
- Q4 3:04AFReagan Tubbs 40 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q4 5:28AFKade Frew 9 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)14–21
- Q3 6:40AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Liam Szarka Pass to Kade Frew for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q3 10:30WYOTerron Kellman 23 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)14–6
- Q2 6:41AFReagan Tubbs 29 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 1:32WYOTerron Kellman 23 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–3
- Q1 5:52AFReagan Tubbs 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassKaden Anderson 23/29, 211 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTerron Kellman 9 CAR, 83 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJaylen Sargent 5 REC, 65 YDS
- PassLiam Szarka 3/8, 33 YDS
- RushLiam Szarka 26 CAR, 141 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJonah Dawson 1 REC, 18 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:52WYO +27%
Reagan Tubbs 32 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 9:29AF +11%
Owen Allen run for 14 yds to the AF 34 for a 1ST down
- Q4 5:20WYO +10%
Kaden Anderson pass incomplete to Samuel Harris
- Q3 2:57AF +8%
Owen Allen run for 26 yds to the AF 46 for a 1ST down
- Q3 7:15AF +7%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Kade Frew for no gain to the AF 35
- Q4 10:53WYO +7%
Samuel Harris run for 4 yds to the AF 3
FAQ
What was the final score of Wyoming vs. Air Force?
Wyoming 21, Air Force 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AF) was correct.
| WYO | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 409 | Total yards | 363 |
| 211 | Passing yards | 33 |
| 198 | Rushing yards | 330 |
| 25 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 23/30 | Comp/Att | 3/8 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 4.1 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 26:57 | Possession | 33:03 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:06 WYO punt on 4th & 3 at AF 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:02WYOMichael Fitzgerald 13 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)21–24
- Q4 3:04AFReagan Tubbs 40 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q4 5:28AFKade Frew 9 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)14–21
- Q3 6:40AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Liam Szarka Pass to Kade Frew for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q3 10:30WYOTerron Kellman 23 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)14–6
- Q2 6:41AFReagan Tubbs 29 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 1:32WYOTerron Kellman 23 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–3
- Q1 5:52AFReagan Tubbs 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1354, WYO Elo 1337 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF -3.1 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 32–28–3 · 44% have been one-possession games
| WYO | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#111) | CORE overall | -17.3 (#119) |
| -18 / -3 | offense / defense | +6 / +24 |
| 1.07 | points / drive | 3.13 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 3.57 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 13% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -27 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →