Rynearson StadiumConference gameClosing line: WMU +-10 · push
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMU | 0 | 17 | 14 | 0 | 31 |
| EMU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
Team stats
WMUthis game · better side highlightedEMU
378
Total yards
461100
Passing yards
327278
Rushing yards
13418
First downs
216-12 · 50%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
EMU 1246
WMU 1407
Projected spread
EMU +4
incl. home edge
Model pick
WMU
62% to win
Market spread
EMU +10
sportsbook line
Model edge
EMU
6.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
38%
EMU · market 25%
Our model blends Elo ratings (EMU Elo 1246, WMU Elo 1407) plus home-field advantage. That projects EMU +4 (38% to win) — 6.0 points of value on EMU versus the market line of +10.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
EMU (top)WMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: EMU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. EMU pass defense (0.35 allowed) — edge EMU.
- EMU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge EMU.
- EMU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. WMU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge EMU.
Drive-by-drive
WMU 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →EMU 3/10 scoring drives
EMUPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 22Q1
WMUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 42Q1
EMUTD9 pl, 98 yds· own 2Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WMU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
WMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan?
Western Michigan 31, Eastern Michigan 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.