Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WMUTeam statsEMU
- Q4 2:28EMUDontae McMillan 20 Yd Run (Noah Kim Pass to Joshua Long for Two-Point Conversion)31–21
- Q4 12:14EMUNick Devereaux 1 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–13
- Q3 2:31WMUJalen Buckley 4 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)31–7
- Q3 7:31WMUBroc Lowry 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)24–7
- Q2 0:02WMUPalmer Domschke 44 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 1:31WMUBroc Lowry 33 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)14–7
- Q2 7:13WMUTalique Williams 36 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:35EMUDontae McMillan 21 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBroc Lowry 7/14, 100 YDS
- RushBroc Lowry 18 CAR, 92 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBlake Bosma 3 REC, 38 YDS
- PassNoah Kim 24/41, 327 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushDontae McMillan 11 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDontae McMillan 4 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWMU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:13WMU +22%
Shotgun #0 T.Williams rush left for 36 yards gain to the EMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 1:31WMU +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 33 yards gain to the EMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 6:35EMU +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short right to #28 D.McMillan caught at WMU26, for 21 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 7:31WMU +8%
Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 1 yard gain to the EMU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:02WMU +6%
#20 P.Domschke field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan?
Western Michigan 31, Eastern Michigan 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
| WMU | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 378 | Total yards | 461 |
| 100 | Passing yards | 327 |
| 278 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 18 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 7/15 | Comp/Att | 24/41 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 7-75 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 32:21 | Possession | 27:39 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:25 WMU punt on 4th & 1 at EMU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:28EMUDontae McMillan 20 Yd Run (Noah Kim Pass to Joshua Long for Two-Point Conversion)31–21
- Q4 12:14EMUNick Devereaux 1 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–13
- Q3 2:31WMUJalen Buckley 4 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)31–7
- Q3 7:31WMUBroc Lowry 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)24–7
- Q2 0:02WMUPalmer Domschke 44 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 1:31WMUBroc Lowry 33 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)14–7
- Q2 7:13WMUTalique Williams 36 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:35EMUDontae McMillan 21 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (EMU Elo 1246, WMU Elo 1407 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects EMU +4 (40% to win) — 6.0 points clear of EMU's market line of +10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWestern Michigan leads 33–17–1 · Western Michigan has won 3 straight · 49% have been one-possession games
| WMU | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.8 (#62) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#114) |
| -5 / -7 | offense / defense | -3 / +13 |
| 2.04 | points / drive | 2.13 |
| 1.60 | allowed / drive | 2.86 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -13 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →