Tue, Dec 23, 10:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 27 |
| USM | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USM Elo 1282, WKU Elo 1401) on a neutral field. That projects USM +4.8 (36% to win) — 7.8 points of value on WKU versus the market line of -3.
USM up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Western Kentucky 27, Southern Miss 16.
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WKU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Marvis Parrish 54 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.McIvor pass complete deep right to #0 M.Henry caught at USM18, for 46 yards to the USM12 (#11 J.Pennix), 1ST DOWN
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.McIvor pass intercepted by #22 C.Myrick at USM20 #22 C.Myrick return 37 yards to the WKU43 (#74 K.Upchurch) PENALTY USM Illegal Block in Back (#35 C.Jones) 10 yards from USM43 to USM33
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