Caesars SuperdomeNeutral siteClosing line: USM -3 · WKU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 27 |
| USM | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
Team stats
WKUthis game · better side highlightedUSM
422
Total yards
377267
Passing yards
258155
Rushing yards
11918
First downs
219-17 · 53%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USM 1282
WKU 1401
Projected spread
USM +4.8
neutral site
Model pick
WKU
64% to win
Market spread
USM -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
WKU
7.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
36%
USM · market 79%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USM Elo 1282, WKU Elo 1401) on a neutral field. That projects USM +4.8 (36% to win) — 7.8 points of value on WKU versus the market line of -3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USM (top)WKU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USM 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- USM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. WKU pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge USM.
- WKU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. USM pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge WKU.
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. USM rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge USM.
Drive-by-drive
WKU 5/15 scoring drives← own end zone →USM 4/15 scoring drives
WKUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
USMDOWNS4 pl, -3 yds· own 15Q1
WKUFG4 pl, -1 yds· opp 12Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USM up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
USM went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss?
Western Kentucky 27, Southern Miss 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WKU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.