| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WASH | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 24 |
| MD | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MD Elo 1574, WASH Elo 1665) plus home-field advantage. That projects MD +1.2 (46% to win) — 4.3 points of value on MD versus the market line of +5.5.
MD up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Washington 24, Maryland 20.
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WASH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Malik Washington pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 14 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST down Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Manu) to the WASH 49 for a 1ST down
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 34 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Raiden Vines-Bright for 13 yds to the MD 38 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
