Washington vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WASHTeam statsMD
- Q4 3:21WASHJonah Coleman 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)24–20
- Q4 11:32WASHDezmen Roebuck 34 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)17–20
- Q4 14:23WASHDenzel Boston 3 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)10–20
- Q3 3:44WASHGrady Gross 36 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q3 11:25MDAJ Szymanski 2 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)0–20
- Q2 4:01MDSean O'Haire 29 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 0:20MDMalik Washington 4 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:22MDSean O'Haire 26 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDemond Williams Jr. 28/41, 275 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJonah Coleman 18 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDenzel Boston 6 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMalik Washington 30/49, 219 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDeJuan Williams 12 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecOctavian Smith Jr. 3 REC, 57 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMD up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:21WASH +57%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
- Q4 11:32WASH +30%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 34 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
- Q1 0:20MD +18%
Malik Washington run for 4 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
- Q4 1:39WASH +17%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the WASH 46
- Q4 8:38MD +17%
Bryce McFerson punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WASH 20, Denzel Boston returns for 15 yds to the WASH 45 Washington Penalty, Running Into The Kicker (Leroy B…
- Q4 8:32WASH +16%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for no gain to the WASH 20
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington vs. Maryland?
Washington 24, Maryland 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
| WASH | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 390 | Total yards | 274 |
| 275 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 115 | Rushing yards | 55 |
| 28 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 28/41 | Comp/Att | 30/49 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 4.5 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-64 | Penalties | 5-39 |
| 30:59 | Possession | 29:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:25 MD field goal on 4th & 2 at WASH 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.13 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:21WASHJonah Coleman 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)24–20
- Q4 11:32WASHDezmen Roebuck 34 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)17–20
- Q4 14:23WASHDenzel Boston 3 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)10–20
- Q3 3:44WASHGrady Gross 36 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q3 11:25MDAJ Szymanski 2 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)0–20
- Q2 4:01MDSean O'Haire 29 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 0:20MDMalik Washington 4 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:22MDSean O'Haire 26 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1574, WASH Elo 1665 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD +1.2 (48% to win) — 4.3 points clear of MD's market line of +5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WASH | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| +21.7 (#11) | CORE overall | -3.8 (#75) |
| +13 / -9 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 3.06 | points / drive | 1.74 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 2.30 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →