Washington State vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WSUTeam statsUVA
- Q4 2:41UVATeam Safety 20–22
- Q4 2:55UVAWill Bettridge 34 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q4 9:45UVAHarrison Waylee 2 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)20–17
- Q3 2:18WSUJack Stevens 42 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 8:38UVAWill Bettridge 47 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 0:35WSUJack Stevens 37 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 6:35WSUZevi Eckhaus 1 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:48UVACam Ross 19 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:47WSUJoshua Meredith 32 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UVA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.1
- UVA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassZevi Eckhaus 18/27, 183 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushKirby Vorhees 16 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecJoshua Meredith 7 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChandler Morris 15/25, 179 YDS
- RushJ'Mari Taylor 17 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecJahmal Edrine 5 REC, 102 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:55UVA +43%
Will Bettridge 34 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 9:45UVA +36%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
- Q4 2:52WSU +30%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Lester,Jonny) 1 yard from WSU02 to WSU01. NO PLAY
- Q4 2:30UVA +28%
J'Mari Taylor run for 3 yds to the UVA 33
- Q3 2:18WSU +27%
Jack Stevens 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 2:41UVA +23%
Kirby Vorhees run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. Virginia?
Washington State 20, Virginia 22.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
| WSU | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 318 | Total yards | 301 |
| 183 | Passing yards | 179 |
| 135 | Rushing yards | 122 |
| 18 | First downs | 13 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 18/27 | Comp/Att | 15/25 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-33 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 34:14 | Possession | 25:46 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:07 WSU punt on 4th & 8 at UVA 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.47 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:41UVATeam Safety 20–22
- Q4 2:55UVAWill Bettridge 34 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q4 9:45UVAHarrison Waylee 2 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)20–17
- Q3 2:18WSUJack Stevens 42 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 8:38UVAWill Bettridge 47 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 0:35WSUJack Stevens 37 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 6:35WSUZevi Eckhaus 1 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:48UVACam Ross 19 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:47WSUJoshua Meredith 32 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1593, WSU Elo 1361 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UVA -11.7 (79% to win) — 4.8 points clear of WSU's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WSU | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.0 (#40) | CORE overall | +10.3 (#39) |
| +3 / -7 | offense / defense | +1 / -9 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 1.86 | allowed / drive | 1.65 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →