Scott Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSU | 7 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
| UVA | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 22 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UVA 1593
WSU 1361
Projected spread
UVA -11.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
UVA
81% to win
Market spread
UVA -16.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
WSU
4.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
81%
UVA · market 86%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UVA Elo 1593, WSU Elo 1361) plus home-field advantage. That projects UVA -11.7 (81% to win) — 4.8 points of value on WSU versus the market line of -16.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UVA (top)WSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UVA 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- UVA pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. WSU pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge UVA.
- UVA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. WSU rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge UVA.
- WSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. UVA pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge WSU.
Drive-by-drive
WSU 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →UVA 4/12 scoring drives
UVAPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 31Q1
WSUTD7 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1
UVAPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
WSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. Virginia?
Washington State 20, Virginia 22.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UVA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.