Sat, Oct 18, 10:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSU | 7 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
| UVA | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 22 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UVA Elo 1593, WSU Elo 1361) plus home-field advantage. That projects UVA -11.7 (81% to win) — 4.8 points of value on WSU versus the market line of -16.5.
WSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Washington State 20, Virginia 22.
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UVA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 37 yds to the WSU 36 for a 1ST down
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jayden Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the WSU 32
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 32 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)
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