Albertsons StadiumNeutral site
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSU | 7 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 34 |
| USU | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 21 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USU 1462
WSU 1533
Projected spread
USU +2.8
neutral site
Model pick
WSU
58% to win
Market spread
USU -1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
WSU
4.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
42%
USU · market 43%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USU Elo 1462, WSU Elo 1533) on a neutral field. That projects USU +2.8 (42% to win) — 4.3 points of value on WSU versus the market line of -1.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USU (top)WSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- USU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. WSU pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge USU.
- WSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. USU rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge USU.
- USU rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. WSU rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge USU.
Drive-by-drive
WSU 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →USU 3/13 scoring drives
USUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
WSUMISS10 pl, 51 yds· own 34Q1
USUPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 20Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WSU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
91%
WSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. Utah State?
Washington State 34, Utah State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.