Mon, Dec 22, 7:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSU | 7 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 34 |
| USU | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USU Elo 1462, WSU Elo 1533) on a neutral field. That projects USU +2.8 (42% to win) — 4.3 points of value on WSU versus the market line of -1.5.
WSU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Washington State 34, Utah State 21.
Yes — the model's pick (WSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(07:14) Shotgun #4 Z.Eckhaus pass complete deep left to #88 M.Alleyne caught at USU13, for 41 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:08, 1ST DOWN #38 J.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #98 R.Harris, LS: #46 C.Peoples)
(00:20) Shotgun #1 A.Johnson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USU11 (#0 E.Migao; #28 C.Tujague), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(11:41) Shotgun #3 J.Conover pass intercepted by #32 D.Russell at WSU04, PENALTY WSU Personal Foul (#17 J.Smith) and USU Personal Foul (#72 G.Maile) 1ST DOWN USU
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