Washington State vs. James Madison: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WSUTeam statsJMU
- Q4 6:24JMUWayne Knight 58 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)20–24
- Q4 9:24WSUJack Stevens 36 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 2:15JMUBraeden Wisloski 68 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)17–17
- Q2 0:48WSUZevi Eckhaus 4 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)17–10
- Q2 7:26WSUTony Freeman 48 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)10–10
- Q2 13:27JMUJustin Eaglin 37 Yd Interception Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–10
- Q1 5:10JMUMorgan Suarez 45 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:06WSUJack Stevens 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassZevi Eckhaus 19/31, 171 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKirby Vorhees 19 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecTony Freeman 6 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAlonza Barnett III 9/18, 144 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushWayne Knight 15 CAR, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBraeden Wisloski 1 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:15JMU +40%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete deep middle to #10 B.Wisloski caught at WSU31, for 68 yards to the WSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 6:24JMU +39%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 58 yards gain to the WSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:48WSU +22%
Shotgun #4 Z.Eckhaus rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 9:24WSU +20%
#38 J.Stevens field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD
- Q4 9:07JMU +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #15 L.Dippre caught at JMU16, for 6 yards to the JMU20 (#9 C.Francl)
- Q4 2:52JMU +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush left for 2 yards gain to the WSU43 (#98 M.Ta'ase; #88 I.Terrell)
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. James Madison?
Washington State 20, James Madison 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
| WSU | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 301 | Total yards | 319 |
| 171 | Passing yards | 144 |
| 130 | Rushing yards | 175 |
| 19 | First downs | 14 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/31 | Comp/Att | 9/18 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-45 | Penalties | 5-54 |
| 34:58 | Possession | 25:02 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:10 WSU punt on 4th & 3 at WSU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:24JMUWayne Knight 58 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)20–24
- Q4 9:24WSUJack Stevens 36 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 2:15JMUBraeden Wisloski 68 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)17–17
- Q2 0:48WSUZevi Eckhaus 4 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)17–10
- Q2 7:26WSUTony Freeman 48 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)10–10
- Q2 13:27JMUJustin Eaglin 37 Yd Interception Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–10
- Q1 5:10JMUMorgan Suarez 45 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:06WSUJack Stevens 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JMU Elo 1882, WSU Elo 1500 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JMU -17.7 (88% to win) — 2.2 points clear of JMU's market line of -15.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WSU | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.0 (#40) | CORE overall | +20.6 (#13) |
| +3 / -7 | offense / defense | +5 / -16 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 3.06 |
| 1.86 | allowed / drive | 1.42 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →