Kenan StadiumConference game
Sat, Oct 25, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| UNC | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNC Elo 1342, UVA Elo 1590) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNC +7.5 (29% to win) — 4.0 points of value on UNC versus the market line of +11.5.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Virginia 17, North Carolina 16.
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UVA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 2nd quarter.
(08:35) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #8 K.Paysour caught at UVA09, for 13 yards to the UVA00 fumbled by #8 K.Paysour at UVA01 forced by #18 C.Costner, Touchback. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (08:35) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #8 K.Paysour caught at UVA09, for 13 yards to the UVA00 fumbled by #8 K.Paysour at UVA01 forced by #18 C.Costner, Touchback)
End of 3rd quarter.
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