Virginia vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UVATeam statsUNC
- OT 0:00UNCDavion Gause 9 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–16
- OT 0:00UVAJ'Mari Taylor 1 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)17–10
- Q2 1:24UNCGio Lopez 1 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)10–10
- Q2 6:36UVAC. Morris pass to T. Harris for 30 yds, for a TD (W. Bettridge KICK)10–3
- Q2 11:30UNCRece Verhoff 34 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 4:33UVAWill Bettridge 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassChandler Morris 20/35, 200 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJ'Mari Taylor 21 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJahmal Edrine 6 REC, 75 YDS
- PassGio Lopez 23/36, 208 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushBenjamin Hall 11 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecJordan Shipp 7 REC, 67 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:09UVA +88%
Kneel down by #4 C.Morris at UVA02 for loss of 1 yard
- Q4 0:48UNC +57%
Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #86 M.Tucker caught at UNC34, for 3 yards to the UNC37 (#1 J.Jackson)
- OT 0:00UNC +40%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #0 S.Ennis caught at UNC16, for 9 yards to the UNC16 (#18 J.Patterson)
- Q4 2:21UVA +33%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short middle to #11 T.Harris thrown to UVA18 PENALTY UNC Roughing The Passer (#94 I.Johnson) 15 yards from UVA11 to UVA26…
- OT 0:00UVA +32%
Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 3:11UNC +27%
#96 T.Maginness punt 38 yards to the UVA08
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia vs. North Carolina?
Virginia 17, North Carolina 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
| UVA | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 259 | Total yards | 353 |
| 200 | Passing yards | 208 |
| 59 | Rushing yards | 145 |
| 16 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/35 | Comp/Att | 23/36 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-65 | Penalties | 6-56 |
| 27:27 | Possession | 32:33 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:53 UNC punt on 4th & 1 at UNC 24. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.80 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00UNCDavion Gause 9 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–16
- OT 0:00UVAJ'Mari Taylor 1 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)17–10
- Q2 1:24UNCGio Lopez 1 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)10–10
- Q2 6:36UVAC. Morris pass to T. Harris for 30 yds, for a TD (W. Bettridge KICK)10–3
- Q2 11:30UNCRece Verhoff 34 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 4:33UVAWill Bettridge 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNC Elo 1342, UVA Elo 1590 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNC +7.5 (32% to win) — 4.0 points clear of UNC's market line of +11.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNorth Carolina leads 65–51–4 · 41% have been one-possession games
| UVA | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.3 (#39) | CORE overall | -10.5 (#97) |
| +1 / -9 | offense / defense | -8 / +3 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 1.67 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 37% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →