Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsSC
- Q4 7:42SCNyck Harbor 64 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)11–24
- Q4 9:00VTJohn Love 39 Yd Field Goal 11–17
- Q4 13:36SCVicari Swain 80 Yd Punt Return (William Joyce Kick)8–17
- Q2 0:00VTJohn Love 56 Yd Field Goal 8–10
- Q2 3:42SCWilliam Joyce 27 Yd Field Goal 5–10
- Q2 13:45VTJohn Love 29 Yd Field Goal 5–7
- Q1 4:33VTTeam Safety 2–7
- Q1 12:09SCLaNorris Sellers 15 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 20% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassKyron Drones 15/35, 221 YDS, 2 INT
- RushMarcellous Hawkins Jr. 15 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecDonavon Greene 3 REC, 94 YDS
- PassLaNorris Sellers 12/19, 209 YDS, 1 TD
- RushOscar Adaway III 14 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecNyck Harbor 3 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSC up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:36SC +28%
Nick Veltsistas punt for 57 yds, Vicari Swain returns for 80 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
- Q1 12:09SC +16%
LaNorris Sellers run for 15 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
- Q4 8:35SC +11%
Rahsul Faison run for 9 yds to the SC 34
- Q4 13:57VT +11%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the VT 23
- Q3 0:38SC +10%
Mason Love punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tucker Holloway at the VT 31
- Q2 0:00VT +10%
John Love 56 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina?
Virginia Tech 11, South Carolina 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SC) was correct.
| VT | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 336 | Total yards | 328 |
| 221 | Passing yards | 209 |
| 115 | Rushing yards | 119 |
| 19 | First downs | 16 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 15/35 | Comp/Att | 12/19 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 11.0 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 8-51 |
| 34:17 | Possession | 25:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 VT field goal on 4th & 1 at SC 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.66 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:42SCNyck Harbor 64 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)11–24
- Q4 9:00VTJohn Love 39 Yd Field Goal 11–17
- Q4 13:36SCVicari Swain 80 Yd Punt Return (William Joyce Kick)8–17
- Q2 0:00VTJohn Love 56 Yd Field Goal 8–10
- Q2 3:42SCWilliam Joyce 27 Yd Field Goal 5–10
- Q2 13:45VTJohn Love 29 Yd Field Goal 5–7
- Q1 4:33VTTeam Safety 2–7
- Q1 12:09SCLaNorris Sellers 15 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SC Elo 1706, VT Elo 1598 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects SC -4.3 (63% to win) — 3.2 points clear of VT's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouth Carolina leads 12–7–2 · South Carolina has won 3 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| VT | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#94) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#53) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | -1 / -7 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 1.48 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 1.63 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →