Virginia Tech vs. NC State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsNCSU
- Q4 6:31VTJohn Love 49 Yd Field Goal 23–21
- Q4 10:58NCSUJayden Scott 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)20–21
- Q3 0:20VTCameron Seldon 4 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)20–14
- Q3 9:10NCSUKeenan Jackson 13 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)13–14
- Q2 2:26VTJohn Love 32 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 9:26VTMarcellous Hawkins 11 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)10–7
- Q1 2:38NCSUDante Daniels 4 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:51VTJohn Love 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassKyron Drones 20/34, 177 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTerion Stewart 15 CAR, 174 YDS
- RecAyden Greene 3 REC, 44 YDS
- PassCJ Bailey 26/34, 240 YDS, 2 TD
- RushHollywood Smothers 16 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecTerrell Anderson 4 REC, 65 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVT up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00VT +43%
K. Drones takes a knee
- Q4 1:36VT +39%
Nick Veltsistas punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Teddy Hoffmann at the NCSU 18
- Q4 10:58NCSU +38%
Jayden Scott run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
- Q3 0:20VT +32%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Cameron Seldon for 4 yds for a TD Virginia Tech Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the NCSU 0 (John Love KICK)
- Q3 9:10NCSU +27%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 13 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)
- Q4 6:31VT +22%
John Love 49 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. NC State?
Virginia Tech 23, NC State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NCSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| VT | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 406 | Total yards | 299 |
| 177 | Passing yards | 240 |
| 229 | Rushing yards | 59 |
| 18 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 20/34 | Comp/Att | 26/34 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 7.4 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 2-5 |
| 29:49 | Possession | 30:11 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:31VTJohn Love 49 Yd Field Goal 23–21
- Q4 10:58NCSUJayden Scott 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)20–21
- Q3 0:20VTCameron Seldon 4 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)20–14
- Q3 9:10NCSUKeenan Jackson 13 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)13–14
- Q2 2:26VTJohn Love 32 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 9:26VTMarcellous Hawkins 11 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)10–7
- Q1 2:38NCSUDante Daniels 4 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:51VTJohn Love 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NCSU Elo 1494, VT Elo 1452 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -4.1 (62% to win) — 5.9 points clear of VT's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#88 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #41 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Virginia Tech leads 28–20–4 · 67% have been one-possession games
| VT | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#94) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#48) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | +6 / -1 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →