Carter-Finley StadiumConference gameClosing line: NCSU -10 · VT covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VT | 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 23 |
| NCSU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Team stats
VTthis game · better side highlightedNCSU
412
Total yards
302177
Passing yards
240235
Rushing yards
6218
First downs
187-15 · 47%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NCSU 1494
VT 1452
Projected spread
NCSU -4.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
NCSU
62% to win
Market spread
NCSU -10
sportsbook line
Model edge
VT
5.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
62%
NCSU · market 76%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NCSU Elo 1494, VT Elo 1452) plus home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -4.1 (62% to win) — 5.9 points of value on VT versus the market line of -10.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NCSU (top)VT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NCSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- VT pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. NCSU pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge NCSU.
- VT rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. NCSU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge VT.
- NCSU pass offense (0.39 PPA) vs. VT pass defense (0.42 allowed) — edge VT.
Drive-by-drive
VT 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NCSU 3/10 scoring drives
VTPUNT6 pl, 26 yds· own 21Q1
NCSUPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 10Q1
VTFG5 pl, 19 yds· opp 40Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
VT up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
77%
VT went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. NC State?
Virginia Tech 23, NC State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NCSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had NCSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.