UTEP vs. Sam Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTEPTeam statsSHSU
- Q4 5:54UTEPAshten Emory 34 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)35–17
- Q4 7:05UTEPKenny Odom 20 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)28–17
- Q3 3:03SHSULonnie Adkism 13 Yd pass from Mabrey Mettauer (Christian Pavon Kick)21–17
- Q3 6:20UTEPSkyler Locklear 15 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)21–10
- Q2 7:27SHSUChristian Pavon 26 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 12:06UTEPSkyler Locklear 2 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:52UTEPJosh Schuchts 4 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:25SHSUMalik Phillips 20 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SHSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTEP did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 4.8
- PassSkyler Locklear 21/26, 236 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAshten Emory 15 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- RecWondame Davis Jr. 3 REC, 79 YDS
- PassHunter Watson 13/19, 161 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLandan Brown 13 CAR, 110 YDS
- RecChris Reed 3 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTEP up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:03SHSU +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Mettauer pass complete short right to #5 L.Adkism caught at TEP14, for 13 yards to the TEP00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 6:20UTEP +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 15 yards gain to the SAM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 12:06UTEP +20%
No Huddle #9 S.Locklear rush left for 2 yards gain to the SAM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 7:05UTEP +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #6 K.Odom caught at SAM21, for 20 yards to the SAM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 2:52UTEP +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #89 J.Schuchts caught at SAM01, for 4 yards to the SAM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 9:25SHSU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete short middle to #11 M.Phillips caught at TEP17, for 20 yards to the TEP00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of UTEP vs. Sam Houston?
UTEP 35, Sam Houston 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTEP) was correct.
| UTEP | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 411 | Total yards | 398 |
| 236 | Passing yards | 239 |
| 175 | Rushing yards | 159 |
| 19 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 6-18 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-4 |
| 21/26 | Comp/Att | 22/36 |
| 9.1 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 6-65 |
| 24:35 | Possession | 35:25 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:15 UTEP punt on 4th & 2 at UTEP 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:54UTEPAshten Emory 34 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)35–17
- Q4 7:05UTEPKenny Odom 20 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)28–17
- Q3 3:03SHSULonnie Adkism 13 Yd pass from Mabrey Mettauer (Christian Pavon Kick)21–17
- Q3 6:20UTEPSkyler Locklear 15 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)21–10
- Q2 7:27SHSUChristian Pavon 26 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 12:06UTEPSkyler Locklear 2 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:52UTEPJosh Schuchts 4 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:25SHSUMalik Phillips 20 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SHSU Elo 1173, UTEP Elo 1200 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects SHSU +1.1 (48% to win) — 2.4 points clear of SHSU's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTEP | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -26.7 (#131) | CORE overall | -30.3 (#134) |
| -26 / +1 | offense / defense | -15 / +15 |
| 1.32 | points / drive | 1.26 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.93 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →