| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 7 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 35 |
| SHSU | 7 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SHSU Elo 1173, UTEP Elo 1200) on a neutral field. That projects SHSU +1.1 (47% to win) — 2.4 points of value on SHSU versus the market line of +3.5.
UTEP up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UTEP 35, Sam Houston 17.
Yes — the model's pick (UTEP) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UTEP pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
No Huddle #1 A.Emory rush middle for 0 yards to the SAM02 (#3 T.Harris; #30 D.Ford)
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass intercepted by #7 E.Allen at SAM04 QB hurried by #30 D.Ford, End Of Play
End of 1st quarter, clock 00:00.
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
