| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 0 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 42 |
| CSU | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CSU Elo 1277, UNLV Elo 1549) plus home-field advantage. That projects CSU +8.5 (26% to win) — 3.5 points of value on UNLV versus the market line of +5.
UNLV up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UNLV 42, Colorado State 10.
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNLV pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(12:33) Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete deep right to #0 T.Omeire caught at CSU40, for 68 yards to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:22, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #39 K.Melzer, LS: #36 A.McIlquham)
(13:02) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush left for 57 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:53, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #39 K.Melzer, LS: #36 A.McIlquham)
(00:32) Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass intercepted by #12 J.Bellah at CSU00 broken up by #4 J.Rogers, Touchback
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