UNLV vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNLVTeam statsCSU
- Q4 13:36UNLVTaeshaun Lyons 39 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)42–10
- Q3 3:11UNLVAnthony Colandrea 2 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)35–10
- Q3 12:22UNLVTroy Omeire 68 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)28–10
- Q2 1:55UNLVJaylon Glover 6 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)21–10
- Q2 7:07UNLVAnthony Colandrea 5 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)14–10
- Q2 9:33CSUIsaiah Hankins 23 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 12:53UNLVJai'Den Thomas 57 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:07CSURocky Beers 3 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassAnthony Colandrea 15/22, 251 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJai'Den Thomas 7 CAR, 131 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTroy Omeire 1 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJackson Brousseau 13/22, 153 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJalen Dupree 13 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecRocky Beers 4 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNLV up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:53UNLV +20%
Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush left for 57 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 7:07UNLV +19%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea rush left for 5 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 9:07CSU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short right to #81 R.Beers caught at UNLV00, for 3 yards to the UNLV00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:01UNLV +17%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short left to #8 T.Lyons caught at UNLV29, for 1 yard to the UNLV31 (#44 J.Ellis; #49 J.Tafia)
- Q3 12:59CSU +15%
Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNLV32 (#91 M.Tuitele; #2 D.Phelps)
- Q2 1:55UNLV +13%
Shotgun #20 J.Glover rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Colorado State?
UNLV 42, Colorado State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
| UNLV | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 571 | Total yards | 292 |
| 251 | Passing yards | 189 |
| 320 | Rushing yards | 103 |
| 23 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 1-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 15/24 | Comp/Att | 17/29 |
| 10.5 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 7.8 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-72 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 33:09 | Possession | 26:51 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:17 CSU go for it on 4th & 6 at UNLV 24. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.46 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:36UNLVTaeshaun Lyons 39 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)42–10
- Q3 3:11UNLVAnthony Colandrea 2 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)35–10
- Q3 12:22UNLVTroy Omeire 68 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)28–10
- Q2 1:55UNLVJaylon Glover 6 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)21–10
- Q2 7:07UNLVAnthony Colandrea 5 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)14–10
- Q2 9:33CSUIsaiah Hankins 23 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 12:53UNLVJai'Den Thomas 57 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:07CSURocky Beers 3 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1277, UNLV Elo 1549 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CSU +8.5 (30% to win) — 3.5 points clear of UNLV's market line of +5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesColorado State leads 17–8–1 · UNLV has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| UNLV | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9 (#69) | CORE overall | -19.4 (#123) |
| +10 / +12 | offense / defense | -8 / +12 |
| 2.90 | points / drive | 1.58 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 2.91 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →