Brooks Stadium (SC)Conference gameClosing line: ULM +-3 · CCU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULM | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| CCU | 6 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 23 |
Team stats
ULMthis game · better side highlightedCCU
316
Total yards
377176
Passing yards
92140
Rushing yards
28514
First downs
161-13 · 8%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CCU 1182
ULM 1101
Projected spread
CCU -5.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
CCU
66% to win
Market spread
CCU +3
sportsbook line
Model edge
CCU
8.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
66%
CCU · market 43%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CCU Elo 1182, ULM Elo 1101) plus home-field advantage. That projects CCU -5.6 (66% to win) — 8.6 points of value on CCU versus the market line of +3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CCU (top)ULM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CCU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- CCU pass offense (0.14 PPA) vs. ULM pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ULM.
- ULM rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. CCU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge CCU.
- ULM pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. CCU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge CCU.
Drive-by-drive
ULM 1/14 scoring drives← own end zone →CCU 5/14 scoring drives
CCUFG15 pl, 60 yds· own 19Q1
ULMPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1
CCUFG6 pl, 50 yds· own 41Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CCU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
95%
CCU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of UL Monroe vs. Coastal Carolina?
UL Monroe 8, Coastal Carolina 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CCU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had CCU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.