UL Monroe vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULMTeam statsCCU
- Q3 7:14CCUSamari Collier 39 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)8–23
- Q3 9:38ULMJonathan Bibbs 27 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Hunter Herring Pass to Dorian Lewis for Two-Point Conversion)8–16
- Q2 0:12CCUBrooks Johnson 8 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)0–16
- Q2 6:59CCUKian Afrookhteh 39 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q1 4:12CCUKian Afrookhteh 26 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 8:52CCUKian Afrookhteh 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ULM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CCU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 13.6 vs 3rd & 6.5
- PassAidan Armenta 14/28, 176 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushBam McReynolds 14 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecJonathan Bibbs 5 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSamari Collier 5/15, 37 YDS, 1 TD
- RushSamari Collier 12 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJameson Tucker 1 REC, 37 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCCU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:18CCU +57%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined
- Q4 0:00ULM +47%
Kneel down by Coastal Carolina at CCU20 for loss of 8 yards
- Q4 2:31CCU +31%
Jalen John run for 2 yds to the CCU 18
- Q4 3:17ULM +30%
UL Monroe Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declined
- Q4 5:41ULM +26%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 46 yds, Jake Godfrey returns for 28 yds to the CCU 35
- Q4 5:33ULM +24%
Hunter Herring pass intercepted Avyonne Jones return for no gain to the CCU 12
FAQ
What was the final score of UL Monroe vs. Coastal Carolina?
UL Monroe 8, Coastal Carolina 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CCU) was correct.
| ULM | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 315 | Total yards | 378 |
| 176 | Passing yards | 92 |
| 139 | Rushing yards | 286 |
| 14 | First downs | 16 |
| 1-13 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/29 | Comp/Att | 8/19 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 4.8 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-64 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 30:04 | Possession | 29:56 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:07 ULM go for it on 4th & 9 at CCU 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.19 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 7:14CCUSamari Collier 39 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)8–23
- Q3 9:38ULMJonathan Bibbs 27 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Hunter Herring Pass to Dorian Lewis for Two-Point Conversion)8–16
- Q2 0:12CCUBrooks Johnson 8 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)0–16
- Q2 6:59CCUKian Afrookhteh 39 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q1 4:12CCUKian Afrookhteh 26 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 8:52CCUKian Afrookhteh 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CCU Elo 1182, ULM Elo 1101 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CCU -5.6 (66% to win) — 8.6 points clear of CCU's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ULM | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.2 (#108) | CORE overall | -16.4 (#115) |
| -8 / +7 | offense / defense | -8 / +8 |
| 1.37 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 2.91 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →