| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| NU | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NU Elo 1411, UCLA Elo 1331) plus home-field advantage. That projects NU -5.6 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
NU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UCLA 14, Northwestern 17.
Yes — the model's pick (NU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Nico Iamaleava run for 32 yds to the NU 45 for a 1ST down
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
Kwazi Gilmer 29 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Nico Iamaleava Pass to Anthony Woods for Two-Point Conversion)
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