UAB vs. Florida Atlantic: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UABTeam statsFAU
- Q4 1:57FAUGarrison Smith 28 Yd Field Goal 33–53
- Q4 5:05UABJonah Delange 45 Yd Field Goal 33–50
- Q3 1:53UABIsaiah Jacobs 3 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Solomon Beebe Run for Two-Point Conversion)30–50
- Q3 4:44FAUAsaad Waseem 29 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Caden Veltkamp Pass to Asaad Waseem for Two-Point Conversion)22–50
- Q3 7:31UABNate Rogers 11 Yd Run (Ryder Burton Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–42
- Q3 11:40FAUKaden Shields-Dutton 1 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)14–42
- Q2 1:29FAUDominique Henry 43 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)14–35
- Q2 3:15UABSolomon Beebe 13 Yd Run (Jalen Kitna Pass to Iverson Hooks for Two-Point Conversion)14–28
- Q2 5:47UABSolomon Beebe 14 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–28
- Q2 13:04FAUJabari Smith 37 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)0–28
- Q1 0:27FAUJayshon Platt 48 Yd pass from Easton Messer (Garrison Smith Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:17FAUKaden Shields-Dutton 2 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:07FAUKaden Shields-Dutton 13 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJalen Kitna 29/41, 261 YDS, 1 TD
- RushSolomon Beebe 4 CAR, 34 YDS, 2 TD
- RecSolomon Beebe 6 REC, 63 YDS
- PassCaden Veltkamp 21/31, 293 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushKaden Shields-Dutton 15 CAR, 77 YDS, 3 TD
- RecAsaad Waseem 7 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFAU up 20 ~12 min left (4th qtr). Across 651 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:07FAU +17%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 13 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
- Q1 5:17FAU +14%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 2 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
- Q2 3:15UAB +9%
Solomon Beebe 13 Yd Run (Jalen Kitna Pass to Iverson Hooks for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q1 0:27FAU +8%
Easton Messer pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 48 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
- Q2 1:29FAU +7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 43 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UAB vs. Florida Atlantic?
UAB 33, Florida Atlantic 53.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FAU) was correct.
| UAB | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 329 | Total yards | 482 |
| 261 | Passing yards | 341 |
| 68 | Rushing yards | 141 |
| 19 | First downs | 24 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 4-5 |
| 29/41 | Comp/Att | 22/32 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 10.7 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 15-128 | Penalties | 5-56 |
| 35:13 | Possession | 24:47 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:57FAUGarrison Smith 28 Yd Field Goal 33–53
- Q4 5:05UABJonah Delange 45 Yd Field Goal 33–50
- Q3 1:53UABIsaiah Jacobs 3 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Solomon Beebe Run for Two-Point Conversion)30–50
- Q3 4:44FAUAsaad Waseem 29 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Caden Veltkamp Pass to Asaad Waseem for Two-Point Conversion)22–50
- Q3 7:31UABNate Rogers 11 Yd Run (Ryder Burton Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–42
- Q3 11:40FAUKaden Shields-Dutton 1 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)14–42
- Q2 1:29FAUDominique Henry 43 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)14–35
- Q2 3:15UABSolomon Beebe 13 Yd Run (Jalen Kitna Pass to Iverson Hooks for Two-Point Conversion)14–28
- Q2 5:47UABSolomon Beebe 14 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–28
- Q2 13:04FAUJabari Smith 37 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)0–28
- Q1 0:27FAUJayshon Platt 48 Yd pass from Easton Messer (Garrison Smith Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:17FAUKaden Shields-Dutton 2 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:07FAUKaden Shields-Dutton 13 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1219, UAB Elo 1260 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU -0.8 (53% to win) — 4.2 points clear of UAB's market line of -5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida Atlantic leads 7–4 · 45% have been one-possession games
| UAB | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.8 (#112) | CORE overall | -13.1 (#103) |
| -4 / +11 | offense / defense | -1 / +12 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 2.19 |
| 3.61 | allowed / drive | 3.05 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →