Cramton BowlNeutral siteClosing line: JXST -3 · JXST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| JXST | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
Team stats
TROYthis game · better side highlightedJXST
217
Total yards
273129
Passing yards
17388
Rushing yards
10015
First downs
152-12 · 17%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
JXST 1488
TROY 1387
Projected spread
JXST -4
neutral site
Model pick
JXST
62% to win
Market spread
JXST -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
62%
JXST · market 30%
Our model blends Elo ratings (JXST Elo 1488, TROY Elo 1387) on a neutral field. That projects JXST -4 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
JXST (top)TROY (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: JXST 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- JXST rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. TROY rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge JXST.
- TROY rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. JXST rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge JXST.
- TROY pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. JXST pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge JXST.
Drive-by-drive
TROY 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →JXST 4/12 scoring drives
TROYPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 30Q1
JXSTTD9 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1
TROYDOWNS6 pl, 19 yds· own 34Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TROY up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
TROY went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. Jacksonville State?
Troy 13, Jacksonville State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.