Troy vs. Jacksonville State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TROYTeam statsJXST
- Q4 10:06JXSTAndrew Paul 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)13–17
- Q3 6:35JXSTGarrison Rippa 51 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 1:55TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 30 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 10:57TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 38 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 1:39TROYLuis Medina 0 Yd Fumble Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:41JXSTBrock Rechsteiner 22 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTucker Kilcrease 12/23, 116 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDennis Palmer 8 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecRaRa Thomas 5 REC, 52 YDS
- PassCaden Creel 14/20, 173 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKhristian Lando 11 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecDeondre Johnson 6 REC, 101 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. Jacksonville State?
Troy 13, Jacksonville State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
| TROY | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 217 | Total yards | 273 |
| 129 | Passing yards | 173 |
| 88 | Rushing yards | 100 |
| 15 | First downs | 15 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 15/30 | Comp/Att | 14/22 |
| 4.3 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 3-45 |
| 29:30 | Possession | 30:30 |
- Q4 10:06JXSTAndrew Paul 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)13–17
- Q3 6:35JXSTGarrison Rippa 51 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 1:55TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 30 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 10:57TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 38 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 1:39TROYLuis Medina 0 Yd Fumble Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:41JXSTBrock Rechsteiner 22 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JXST Elo 1488, TROY Elo 1387 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects JXST -4 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TROY | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.6 (#116) | CORE overall | -10.7 (#99) |
| -13 / +4 | offense / defense | -4 / +7 |
| 1.77 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →