Waldo StadiumConference gameClosing line: TOL +-12.5 · WMU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| WMU | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
Team stats
TOLthis game · better side highlightedWMU
280
Total yards
29289
Passing yards
201191
Rushing yards
9116
First downs
175-18 · 28%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WMU 1246
TOL 1505
Projected spread
WMU +8
incl. home edge
Model pick
TOL
72% to win
Market spread
WMU +12.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
WMU
4.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
28%
WMU · market 19%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WMU Elo 1246, TOL Elo 1505) plus home-field advantage. That projects WMU +8 (28% to win) — 4.5 points of value on WMU versus the market line of +12.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WMU (top)TOL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WMU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- TOL pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge TOL.
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. TOL pass defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge WMU.
- WMU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. TOL rush defense (-0.01 allowed) — edge WMU.
Drive-by-drive
TOL 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →WMU 2/13 scoring drives
WMUPUNT6 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
TOLINT13 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q1
WMUINT3 pl, 23 yds· own 7Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TOL up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
TOL went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Western Michigan?
Toledo 13, Western Michigan 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TOL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had TOL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.