Toledo vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOLTeam statsWMU
- Q4 0:52WMUBroc Lowry 2 Yd Run (Broc Lowry Run for Two-Point Conversion)13–14
- Q3 0:48WMUBroc Lowry 6 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke PAT failed)13–6
- Q3 7:43TOLDylan Cunanan 27 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q3 14:28TOLChip Trayanum 63 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–0
- Q2 0:22TOLDylan Cunanan 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassTucker Gleason 15/30, 89 YDS, 2 INT
- RushChip Trayanum 26 CAR, 153 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTerrell Crosby Jr. 3 REC, 34 YDS
- PassBroc Lowry 16/33, 201 YDS, 1 INT
- RushBroc Lowry 18 CAR, 50 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTalique Williams 4 REC, 112 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:52WMU +90%
Broc Lowry run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Lowry Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q4 0:00WMU +71%
Kneel down by Western Mich. at TOL37 for loss of 1 yard
- Q1 11:54TOL +66%
PENALTY WMU False Start (Franklin,Josh) 5 yards from WMU33 to WMU28. NO PLAY
- Q4 0:36TOL +56%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the TOL 34 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by TOL Anthony Boswell
- Q4 5:59WMU +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lowry,Broc pass incomplete short middle to Chenault,Aveion thrown to WMU44 PENALTY TOL Personal Foul (Awls,Braden) 15 yards from WMU37 to TOL48, 1ST…
- Q4 12:30WMU +14%
Ryan Millmore punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 18
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Western Michigan?
Toledo 13, Western Michigan 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TOL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TOL | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 280 | Total yards | 291 |
| 89 | Passing yards | 201 |
| 191 | Rushing yards | 90 |
| 16 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-18 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 15/30 | Comp/Att | 16/33 |
| 3.0 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-48 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 29:42 | Possession | 30:18 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:00 TOL punt on 4th & 10 at WMU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:52WMUBroc Lowry 2 Yd Run (Broc Lowry Run for Two-Point Conversion)13–14
- Q3 0:48WMUBroc Lowry 6 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke PAT failed)13–6
- Q3 7:43TOLDylan Cunanan 27 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q3 14:28TOLChip Trayanum 63 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)10–0
- Q2 0:22TOLDylan Cunanan 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WMU Elo 1246, TOL Elo 1505 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WMU +8 (31% to win) — 4.5 points clear of WMU's market line of +12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#79 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #26 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Toledo leads 39–24 · 37% have been one-possession games
| TOL | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.3 (#19) | CORE overall | +1.8 (#62) |
| +3 / -15 | offense / defense | -5 / -7 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 1.17 | allowed / drive | 1.60 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →