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Toledo vs. Washington State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 25, 7:30 PM
Gesa Field
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| WSU | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 28 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WSU 1364
TOL 1579
Projected spread
WSU +6.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
TOL
68% to win
Market spread
WSU +1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
TOL
4.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
32%
WSU · market 70%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WSU Elo 1364, TOL Elo 1579) plus home-field advantage. That projects WSU +6.2 (32% to win) — 4.7 points of value on TOL versus the market line of +1.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WSU (top)TOL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WSU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
TOL2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWSU
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.1344%
Success rate
42%1.23
Explosiveness
1.123.86
Pts / opportunity
3.9378%
Power success
68%Defense
-0.07
PPA allowed / play
0.0733%
Success rate allowed
40%1.17
Explosiveness allowed
1.0920%
Havoc rate
14%22%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- WSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. TOL pass defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge WSU.
- TOL pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. WSU pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge TOL.
- WSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. TOL rush defense (-0.01 allowed) — edge WSU.
Drive-by-drive
TOL 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →WSU 4/12 scoring drives
TOLPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
WSUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 36Q1
TOLPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 39Q1
WSUPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 11Q1
TOLPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 48Q1
WSUTD11 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q1
TOLPUNT6 pl, 48 yds· own 12Q2
WSUTD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
TOLPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 19Q2
WSUTD8 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q2
TOLTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
WSUEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2
WSUINT2 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
TOLDOWNS10 pl, 10 yds· opp 43Q3
WSUPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 20Q3
TOLDOWNS9 pl, 48 yds· own 21Q3
WSUINT5 pl, 17 yds· own 31Q3
TOLDOWNS7 pl, 37 yds· own 44Q3
WSUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 19Q4
TOLINT3 pl, 22 yds· own 35Q4
WSUTD12 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4
TOLDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q4
WSUEND2 pl, -2 yds· opp 34Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
WSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Washington State?
Toledo 7, Washington State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TOL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had TOL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.