Texas vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEXTeam statsFLA
- Q4 3:20TEXQuintrevion Wisner 1 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)21–29
- Q3 0:38FLADallas Wilson 55 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)14–29
- Q3 2:43TEXRyan Wingo 38 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)14–22
- Q3 5:37FLATrey Smack 38 Yd Field Goal 7–22
- Q2 3:52FLATeam Safety 7–19
- Q2 4:55FLADallas Wilson 13 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)7–17
- Q2 9:55TEXQuintrevion Wisner 6 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:00FLATrey Smack 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:58FLAJadan Baugh 5 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TEX played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FLA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.6 vs 3rd & 6.4
- TEX lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 19% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassArch Manning 16/29, 263 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushArch Manning 15 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecDeAndre Moore Jr. 3 REC, 75 YDS
- PassDJ Lagway 21/28, 298 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJadan Baugh 27 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDallas Wilson 6 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFLA up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:43TEX +23%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 38 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
- Q1 14:12TEX +21%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 9 yds Dallas Wilson fumbled, recovered by FLA Dallas Wilson
- Q3 0:38FLA +18%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Dallas Wilson for 55 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
- Q3 8:50FLA +14%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Barber,Austin) 5 yards from UFL20 to UFL15. NO PLAY
- Q3 2:38FLA +9%
DJ Lagway pass incomplete to Jadan Baugh
- Q3 5:37FLA +9%
Trey Smack 38 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas vs. Florida?
Texas 21, Florida 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TEX, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TEX | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Total yards | 457 |
| 289 | Passing yards | 298 |
| 52 | Rushing yards | 159 |
| 16 | First downs | 22 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/32 | Comp/Att | 21/28 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 10.6 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 10-70 | Penalties | 7-50 |
| 25:53 | Possession | 34:07 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:50 TEX punt on 4th & 7 at FLA 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:20TEXQuintrevion Wisner 1 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)21–29
- Q3 0:38FLADallas Wilson 55 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)14–29
- Q3 2:43TEXRyan Wingo 38 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)14–22
- Q3 5:37FLATrey Smack 38 Yd Field Goal 7–22
- Q2 3:52FLATeam Safety 7–19
- Q2 4:55FLADallas Wilson 13 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)7–17
- Q2 9:55TEXQuintrevion Wisner 6 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:00FLATrey Smack 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:58FLAJadan Baugh 5 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1629, TEX Elo 1972 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA +11.3 (24% to win) — 6.8 points clear of TEX's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#87 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #83 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #8 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| TEX | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.3 (#28) | CORE overall | +3.5 (#59) |
| +5 / -9 | offense / defense | +0 / -3 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 1.68 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →