Texas
3-1·SEC· Elo 1972
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| FLA | 10 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 29 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FLA Elo 1629, TEX Elo 1972) plus home-field advantage. That projects FLA +11.3 (20% to win) — 6.8 points of value on TEX versus the market line of +4.5.
FLA up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas 21, Florida 29.
No — the model picked TEX, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had TEX pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
DJ Lagway pass complete to Vernell Brown III for 60 yds to the TEX 25 for a 1ST down
Arch Manning run for 36 yds to the FLA 30 for a 1ST down
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 26 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jeramiah McCloud) to the FLA 40 for a 1ST down
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