Sat, Oct 18, 8:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 15 | 22 |
| ASU | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 26 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ASU Elo 1629, TTU Elo 1835) plus home-field advantage. That projects ASU +5.8 (33% to win) — 2.2 points of value on ASU versus the market line of +8.
ASU up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas Tech 22, Arizona State 26.
No — the model picked TTU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had TTU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jaren Hamilton for 49 yds to the TTU 17 for a 1ST down
Cameron Dickey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 9
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 33 yds to the TTU 22 for a 1ST down
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