Texas Tech vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TTUTeam statsASU
- Q4 0:34ASURaleek Brown 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)22–26
- Q4 2:00TTUReggie Virgil 12 Yd pass from Will Hammond (Will Hammond Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–19
- Q4 3:45TTUWill Hammond 1 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)14–19
- Q4 14:14ASUJesus Gomez 28 Yd Field Goal 7–19
- Q3 8:50ASUJordyn Tyson 2 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)7–16
- Q2 1:43ASUJesus Gomez 26 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q2 5:57TTUCoy Eakin 30 Yd pass from Will Hammond (Stone Harrington Kick)7–6
- Q2 14:00ASUJesus Gomez 47 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 1:43ASUJesus Gomez 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassWill Hammond 22/37, 167 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushWill Hammond 15 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCoy Eakin 5 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSam Leavitt 28/47, 319 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRaleek Brown 19 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordyn Tyson 10 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsASU up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:34ASU +82%
Raleek Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
- Q4 2:00TTU +49%
Hammond,Will pass attempt failed PENALTY ASU Holding (Abney II,Keith) 2 yards from ASU03 to ASU01. NO PLAY
- Q1 14:01TTU +48%
PENALTY TTU False Start (Wilson,Sheridan) 5 yards from TTU33 to TTU28. NO PLAY
- Q3 8:50ASU +25%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 2 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
- Q4 3:45TTU +21%
Will Hammond run for 1 yd for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
- Q4 2:05ASU +20%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 29 yds, Coy Eakin returns for 36 yds to the ASU 12
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas Tech vs. Arizona State?
Texas Tech 22, Arizona State 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TTU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TTU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 276 | Total yards | 394 |
| 167 | Passing yards | 319 |
| 109 | Rushing yards | 75 |
| 16 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 9-21 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 22/38 | Comp/Att | 28/47 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 2.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-39 | Penalties | 6-37 |
| 22:48 | Possession | 37:12 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:21 ASU punt on 4th & 2 at TTU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.29 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:34ASURaleek Brown 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)22–26
- Q4 2:00TTUReggie Virgil 12 Yd pass from Will Hammond (Will Hammond Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–19
- Q4 3:45TTUWill Hammond 1 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)14–19
- Q4 14:14ASUJesus Gomez 28 Yd Field Goal 7–19
- Q3 8:50ASUJordyn Tyson 2 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)7–16
- Q2 1:43ASUJesus Gomez 26 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q2 5:57TTUCoy Eakin 30 Yd pass from Will Hammond (Stone Harrington Kick)7–6
- Q2 14:00ASUJesus Gomez 47 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 1:43ASUJesus Gomez 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1629, TTU Elo 1835 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU +5.8 (36% to win) — 2.2 points clear of ASU's market line of +8. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#89 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #53 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #4 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| TTU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| +33.7 (#5) | CORE overall | +8.2 (#44) |
| +4 / -30 | offense / defense | +2 / -6 |
| 2.82 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 0.95 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →