Mountain America StadiumConference gameClosing line: TTU +-8 · ASU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 15 | 22 |
| ASU | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 26 |
Team stats
TTUthis game · better side highlightedASU
276
Total yards
394167
Passing yards
319109
Rushing yards
7516
First downs
216-16 · 38%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ASU 1629
TTU 1835
Projected spread
ASU +5.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
TTU
67% to win
Market spread
ASU +8
sportsbook line
Model edge
ASU
2.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
33%
ASU · market 28%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ASU Elo 1629, TTU Elo 1835) plus home-field advantage. That projects ASU +5.8 (33% to win) — 2.2 points of value on ASU versus the market line of +8.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ASU (top)TTU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ASU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- ASU rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. TTU rush defense (-0.16 allowed) — edge ASU.
- ASU pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. TTU pass defense (-0.00 allowed) — edge ASU.
- TTU pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. ASU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge TTU.
Drive-by-drive
TTU 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ASU 6/13 scoring drives
TTUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1
ASUPUNT4 pl, 26 yds· own 24Q1
TTUPUNT4 pl, 25 yds· own 8Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ASU up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
87%
ASU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas Tech vs. Arizona State?
Texas Tech 22, Arizona State 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TTU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had TTU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.