Cajun FieldConference gameClosing line: TXST +-3.5 · UL covered
Sat, Nov 8, 10:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 10 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 39 |
| UL | 7 | 28 | 0 | 7 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UL Elo 1347, TXST Elo 1486) plus home-field advantage. That projects UL +3.2 (41% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UL up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas State 39, Louisiana 42.
No — the model picked TXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had TXST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Sparks rush right for 49 yards gain to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:05, 1ST DOWN #8 B.Jackson pass attempt failed
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 54 yards gain to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:27, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Robles kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner)
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete deep left to #11 B.Sparks caught at UL38, for 62 yards to the UL23 (#4 T.Skipper), 1ST DOWN
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