Texas State vs. Louisiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TXSTTeam statsUL
- Q4 3:12TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 21 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)39–42
- Q4 8:19TXSTBeau Sparks 38 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)32–42
- Q4 12:05TXSTBeau Sparks 49 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–42
- Q4 13:02ULLunch Winfield 3 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)20–42
- Q3 2:57TXSTTyler Robles 24 Yd Field Goal 20–35
- Q2 0:21ULLunch Winfield 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)17–35
- Q2 4:26TXSTTitus Lyons 24 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)17–28
- Q2 5:36ULShelton Sampson Jr. 12 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)10–28
- Q2 8:29ULBill Davis 12 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)10–21
- Q2 11:24ULCaden Jensen 27 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:27TXSTLincoln Pare 54 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)10–7
- Q1 4:45TXSTTyler Robles 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 8:06ULShelton Sampson Jr. 10 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBrad Jackson 26/33, 360 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushLincoln Pare 10 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBeau Sparks 10 REC, 186 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLunch Winfield 17/27, 192 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushBill Davis 18 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- RecShelton Sampson Jr. 5 REC, 80 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:12TXST +31%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete deep right to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. caught at UL00, for 21 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 2:41UL +26%
Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep left to #6 S.Sampson Jr. thrown to TXST31 PENALTY TXST Offside declined TXST Pass Interference (#4 K.Terrell) 15 yards from…
- Q1 12:59TXST +18%
#38 D.Nunez punt 48 yards to the UL00, Touchback
- Q4 8:19TXST +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete deep left to #11 B.Sparks caught at UL00, for 38 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #8 B.Jackson rush attempt failed
- Q4 11:55UL +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush left for 5 yards gain to the UL30 (#45 C.Nilles)
- Q4 6:28UL +7%
#92 N.Torney punt 47 yards to the TXST24 #11 B.Sparks return 11 yards to the TXST35 (#11 B.Gordon, Jr.)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Louisiana?
Texas State 39, Louisiana 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TXST | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 528 | Total yards | 384 |
| 360 | Passing yards | 192 |
| 168 | Rushing yards | 192 |
| 22 | First downs | 27 |
| 2-8 | 3rd down | 12-19 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 26/33 | Comp/Att | 17/27 |
| 10.9 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 7.0 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 11-114 | Penalties | 8-65 |
| 22:02 | Possession | 37:58 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:59 TXST punt on 4th & 1 at UL 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:12TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 21 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)39–42
- Q4 8:19TXSTBeau Sparks 38 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)32–42
- Q4 12:05TXSTBeau Sparks 49 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–42
- Q4 13:02ULLunch Winfield 3 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)20–42
- Q3 2:57TXSTTyler Robles 24 Yd Field Goal 20–35
- Q2 0:21ULLunch Winfield 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)17–35
- Q2 4:26TXSTTitus Lyons 24 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)17–28
- Q2 5:36ULShelton Sampson Jr. 12 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)10–28
- Q2 8:29ULBill Davis 12 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)10–21
- Q2 11:24ULCaden Jensen 27 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:27TXSTLincoln Pare 54 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)10–7
- Q1 4:45TXSTTyler Robles 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 8:06ULShelton Sampson Jr. 10 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UL Elo 1347, TXST Elo 1486 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UL +3.2 (43% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLouisiana leads 13–0 · Louisiana has won 13 straight · 23% have been one-possession games
| TXST | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.4 (#41) | CORE overall | -20.6 (#126) |
| +12 / +3 | offense / defense | -8 / +13 |
| 3.21 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.73 | allowed / drive | 2.56 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →