Davis Wade StadiumConference gameClosing line: TENN +-7.5 · MSST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 10 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
| MSST | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
Team stats
TENNthis game · better side highlightedMSST
471
Total yards
378335
Passing yards
180136
Rushing yards
19824
First downs
23Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MSST 1512
TENN 1838
Projected spread
MSST +10.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
TENN
78% to win
Market spread
MSST +7.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
TENN
3.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
22%
MSST · market 29%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MSST Elo 1512, TENN Elo 1838) plus home-field advantage. That projects MSST +10.6 (22% to win) — 3.1 points of value on TENN versus the market line of +7.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MSST (top)TENN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MSST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- TENN pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. MSST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge TENN.
- TENN rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. MSST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge TENN.
- MSST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. TENN pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge TENN.
Drive-by-drive
TENN 5/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MSST 8/15 scoring drives
MSSTPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q1
MSSTTD5 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q1
TENNFG7 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MSST up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
MSST went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Tennessee vs. Mississippi State?
Tennessee 41, Mississippi State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.