Tennessee vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TENNTeam statsMSST
- OT 0:00TENNDeSean Bishop 25 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)41–34
- Q4 1:55TENNJoey Aguilar 6 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)34–34
- Q4 7:59MSSTSeydou Traore 2 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)27–34
- Q4 10:31MSSTKyle Ferrie 38 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 13:29TENNJoshua Josephs 41 Yd Fumble Return (Max Gilbert Kick)27–24
- Q3 3:48MSSTFluff Bothwell 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)20–24
- Q3 11:28TENNMax Gilbert 27 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 7:25TENNChris Brazzell II 15 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)17–17
- Q2 8:41MSSTKyle Ferrie 51 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 13:53MSSTDavon Booth 5 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)10–14
- Q1 4:19TENNColton Hood 23 Yd Interception Return (Max Gilbert Kick)10–7
- Q1 9:19TENNMax Gilbert 38 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:49MSSTFluff Bothwell 5 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJoey Aguilar 24/40, 335 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDeSean Bishop 11 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMike Matthews 6 REC, 118 YDS
- PassBlake Shapen 18/29, 175 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushFluff Bothwell 23 CAR, 134 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAyden Williams 1 REC, 49 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSST up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:55TENN +71%
Joey Aguilar run for 6 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
- Q4 0:00TENN +68%
Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (William Wright) declined
- Q4 1:23MSST +45%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 48 yds, Boo Carter returns for 1 yd to the TENN 26
- Q4 7:59MSST +40%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
- Q4 13:29TENN +34%
Joshua Josephs 41 Yd Fumble Return (Max Gilbert Kick)
- Q3 3:48MSST +30%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tennessee vs. Mississippi State?
Tennessee 41, Mississippi State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
| TENN | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 466 | Total yards | 378 |
| 335 | Passing yards | 175 |
| 131 | Rushing yards | 203 |
| 24 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 8-19 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 24/40 | Comp/Att | 18/29 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 6-71 |
| 27:37 | Possession | 32:23 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:00 TENN punt on 4th & 2 at MSST 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00TENNDeSean Bishop 25 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)41–34
- Q4 1:55TENNJoey Aguilar 6 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)34–34
- Q4 7:59MSSTSeydou Traore 2 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)27–34
- Q4 10:31MSSTKyle Ferrie 38 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 13:29TENNJoshua Josephs 41 Yd Fumble Return (Max Gilbert Kick)27–24
- Q3 3:48MSSTFluff Bothwell 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)20–24
- Q3 11:28TENNMax Gilbert 27 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 7:25TENNChris Brazzell II 15 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)17–17
- Q2 8:41MSSTKyle Ferrie 51 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 13:53MSSTDavon Booth 5 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)10–14
- Q1 4:19TENNColton Hood 23 Yd Interception Return (Max Gilbert Kick)10–7
- Q1 9:19TENNMax Gilbert 38 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:49MSSTFluff Bothwell 5 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1512, TENN Elo 1838 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST +10.6 (25% to win) — 3.1 points clear of TENN's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTennessee leads 31–16–1 · Tennessee has won 3 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| TENN | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.0 (#26) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#64) |
| +16 / +1 | offense / defense | -1 / -1 |
| 3.27 | points / drive | 2.07 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →