Tennessee vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TENNTeam statsFLA
- Q4 8:15FLAJadan Baugh 33 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (DJ Lagway Pass to Tony Livingston for Two-Point Conversion)31–11
- Q3 2:04FLATrey Smack 46 Yd Field Goal 31–3
- Q2 0:00TENNMax Gilbert 26 Yd Field Goal 31–0
- Q2 9:14TENNStar Thomas 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)28–0
- Q2 13:08TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)21–0
- Q1 5:33TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:28TENNEthan Davis 23 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FLA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TENN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.5
- PassJoey Aguilar 17/22, 204 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDeSean Bishop 24 CAR, 116 YDS, 2 TD
- RecEthan Davis 5 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDJ Lagway 11/17, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJadan Baugh 18 CAR, 96 YDS
- RecJadan Baugh 2 REC, 35 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTENN up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Tennessee vs. Florida?
Tennessee 31, Florida 11.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
| TENN | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 452 | Total yards | 261 |
| 204 | Passing yards | 116 |
| 248 | Rushing yards | 145 |
| 28 | First downs | 15 |
| 9-13 | 3rd down | 2-9 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 17/22 | Comp/Att | 11/17 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-25 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 35:42 | Possession | 24:18 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:04 TENN punt on 4th & 17 at FLA 42. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:15FLAJadan Baugh 33 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (DJ Lagway Pass to Tony Livingston for Two-Point Conversion)31–11
- Q3 2:04FLATrey Smack 46 Yd Field Goal 31–3
- Q2 0:00TENNMax Gilbert 26 Yd Field Goal 31–0
- Q2 9:14TENNStar Thomas 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)28–0
- Q2 13:08TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)21–0
- Q1 5:33TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:28TENNEthan Davis 23 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1565, TENN Elo 1834 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA +8.4 (30% to win) — 4.9 points clear of TENN's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida leads 32–23 · Tennessee has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| TENN | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.0 (#26) | CORE overall | +3.5 (#59) |
| +16 / +1 | offense / defense | +0 / -3 |
| 3.27 | points / drive | 1.68 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →