Stanford
ACC· Elo 1282
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| BYU | 6 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BYU Elo 1644, STAN Elo 1282) plus home-field advantage. That projects BYU -16.9 (89% to win) — 3.6 points of value on STAN versus the market line of -20.5.
BYU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Stanford 3, BYU 27.
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BYU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
LJ Martin run for 47 yds to the STAN 38 for a 1ST down
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 41 yds to the STAN 34 for a 1ST down
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Jojo Phillips for 21 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST down
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