Southern Miss vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USMTeam statsGASO
- Q4 2:14GASOJC French IV 2 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)38–35
- Q4 6:20GASOCamden Brown 26 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)38–28
- Q4 10:24USMCreighton Wilbanks 42 Yd Field Goal 38–21
- Q3 1:19GASOMarcus Sanders Jr. 39 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)35–21
- Q3 4:24USMMatt Jones 3 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)35–14
- Q3 7:03GASOJC French IV 5 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)28–14
- Q2 1:18USMJeffery Pittman 2 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)28–7
- Q2 5:06USMCarl Chester 30 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)21–7
- Q2 14:56USMJeffery Pittman 2 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:42USMTychaun Chapman 50 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:23GASODavid Mbadinga 2 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassBraylon Braxton 19/28, 237 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJeffery Pittman 31 CAR, 140 YDS, 2 TD
- RecElijah Metcalf 4 REC, 62 YDS
- PassJC French IV 24/43, 313 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushOJ Arnold 13 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecCamden Brown 12 REC, 158 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSM up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:57GASO +54%
Alex Smith punt for 54 yds
- Q4 2:14GASO +33%
JC French IV run for 2 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
- Q4 2:10USM +26%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the GASO 31
- Q4 10:24USM +17%
Creighton Wilbanks 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 4:24USM +10%
PENALTY GASO Personal Foul (Meyers,Justin) 15 yards from USM35 to USM50. NO PLAY
- Q3 4:19GASO +9%
OJ Arnold run for 14 yds to the GASO 39 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. Georgia Southern?
Southern Miss 38, Georgia Southern 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GASO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USM | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 421 | Total yards | 395 |
| 237 | Passing yards | 313 |
| 184 | Rushing yards | 82 |
| 25 | First downs | 24 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 19/28 | Comp/Att | 24/43 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-68 | Penalties | 12-104 |
| 30:57 | Possession | 29:03 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:16 USM punt on 4th & 1 at USM 18. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.89 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:14GASOJC French IV 2 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)38–35
- Q4 6:20GASOCamden Brown 26 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)38–28
- Q4 10:24USMCreighton Wilbanks 42 Yd Field Goal 38–21
- Q3 1:19GASOMarcus Sanders Jr. 39 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)35–21
- Q3 4:24USMMatt Jones 3 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)35–14
- Q3 7:03GASOJC French IV 5 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)28–14
- Q2 1:18USMJeffery Pittman 2 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)28–7
- Q2 5:06USMCarl Chester 30 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)21–7
- Q2 14:56USMJeffery Pittman 2 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:42USMTychaun Chapman 50 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:23GASODavid Mbadinga 2 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GASO Elo 1324, USM Elo 1265 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GASO -4.8 (64% to win) — 7.8 points clear of GASO's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USM | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.7 (#86) | CORE overall | -14.7 (#105) |
| -6 / +1 | offense / defense | +2 / +17 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 3.06 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →