Allen E. Paulson StadiumConference gameClosing line: USM +-3 · push
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 7 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 38 |
| GASO | 7 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 35 |
Team stats
USMthis game · better side highlightedGASO
421
Total yards
395237
Passing yards
313184
Rushing yards
8225
First downs
246-15 · 40%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
GASO 1324
USM 1265
Projected spread
GASO -4.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
GASO
64% to win
Market spread
GASO +3
sportsbook line
Model edge
GASO
7.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
64%
GASO · market 43%
Our model blends Elo ratings (GASO Elo 1324, USM Elo 1265) plus home-field advantage. That projects GASO -4.8 (64% to win) — 7.8 points of value on GASO versus the market line of +3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
GASO (top)USM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: GASO 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- USM rush offense (0.10 PPA) vs. GASO rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. USM pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge GASO.
- USM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. GASO pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge GASO.
Drive-by-drive
USM 6/14 scoring drives← own end zone →GASO 5/14 scoring drives
GASOPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1
USMPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 9Q1
GASOTD7 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USM up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
USM went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. Georgia Southern?
Southern Miss 38, Georgia Southern 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GASO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had GASO pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.