Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Sat, Sep 6, 8:15 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 0 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 18 |
| FLA | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FLA Elo 1678, USF Elo 1554) plus home-field advantage. That projects FLA -7.4 (71% to win) — 11.1 points of value on USF versus the market line of -18.5.
Pick: FLA · 15 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
USF up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
South Florida 18, Florida 16.
No — the model picked FLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had FLA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 66 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
Eugene Wilson III 4 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)
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