South Florida vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USFTeam statsFLA
- Q4 0:00USFNico Gramatica 20 Yd Field Goal 18–16
- Q4 12:29FLAEugene Wilson III 4 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)15–16
- Q3 0:13USFTeam Safety15–9
- Q3 2:03USFKeshaun Singleton 66 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)13–9
- Q2 0:00USFNico Gramatica 25 Yd Field Goal 6–9
- Q2 1:50FLATrey Smack 41 Yd Field Goal 3–9
- Q2 7:13FLATrey Smack 36 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q2 14:52USFNico Gramatica 38 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:39FLATrey Smack 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassByrum Brown 23/36, 263 YDS, 1 TD
- RushByrum Brown 17 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecKeshaun Singleton 2 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDJ Lagway 23/33, 222 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJadan Baugh 18 CAR, 93 YDS
- RecEugene Wilson III 7 REC, 60 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSF up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:16USF +37%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum pass incomplete short right to Singleton,Keshaun thrown to USF25 QB hurried by Woods,Jayden, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UFL Pass Interference (Joh…
- Q4 12:29FLA +36%
Eugene Wilson III 4 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)
- Q4 2:52USF +32%
Nico Gramatica 58 yd FG MISSED
- Q3 2:03USF +32%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 66 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
- Q4 2:25FLA +31%
Tommy Doman punt for 47 yds
- Q4 0:00USF +22%
Nico Gramatica 20 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of South Florida vs. Florida?
South Florida 18, Florida 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USF | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 391 | Total yards | 355 |
| 263 | Passing yards | 222 |
| 128 | Rushing yards | 133 |
| 20 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 23/36 | Comp/Att | 23/33 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-75 | Penalties | 11-103 |
| 25:47 | Possession | 34:13 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:52 FLA punt on 4th & 4 at USF 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00USFNico Gramatica 20 Yd Field Goal 18–16
- Q4 12:29FLAEugene Wilson III 4 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)15–16
- Q3 0:13USFTeam Safety15–9
- Q3 2:03USFKeshaun Singleton 66 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)13–9
- Q2 0:00USFNico Gramatica 25 Yd Field Goal 6–9
- Q2 1:50FLATrey Smack 41 Yd Field Goal 3–9
- Q2 7:13FLATrey Smack 36 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q2 14:52USFNico Gramatica 38 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:39FLATrey Smack 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1678, USF Elo 1554 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA -7.4 (70% to win) — 11.1 points clear of USF's market line of -18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#52 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #7 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #16 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| USF | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.2 (#25) | CORE overall | +3.5 (#59) |
| +11 / -5 | offense / defense | +0 / -3 |
| 3.02 | points / drive | 1.68 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →