Malone StadiumConference gameClosing line: USA +-4 · USA covered
Sat, Nov 15, 8:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 0 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 26 |
| ULM | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ULM Elo 998, USA Elo 1375) plus home-field advantage. That projects ULM +12.7 (17% to win) — 8.7 points of value on USA versus the market line of +4.
USA up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
South Alabama 26, UL Monroe 14.
Yes — the model's pick (USA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Noah Flemmings 42 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Chambliss Kick)
(11:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete deep middle to #11 A.Eager caught at ULM38, for 48 yards to the ULM24 (#12 J.Tiller), 1ST DOWN
(13:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass intercepted by #7 T.Goodwill at USA00, Touchback
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