South Alabama vs. UL Monroe: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsULM
- Q4 14:36USAKentrel Bullock 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–14
- Q3 5:05USABishop Davenport 3 Yd Run (Davis Little PAT failed)20–14
- Q3 10:03USABishop Davenport 1 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)14–14
- Q2 11:03USAKentrel Bullock 1 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:42ULMNoah Flemmings 42 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Chambliss Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:08ULMBraylon McReynolds 29 Yd Run (Jacob Chambliss Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ULM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 12.6 vs 3rd & 8.1
- PassBishop Davenport 17/23, 162 YDS
- RushKentrel Bullock 20 CAR, 85 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAnthony Eager 5 REC, 83 YDS
- PassAidan Armenta 10/19, 82 YDS, 1 INT
- RushBam McReynolds 12 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJulian Nixon 2 REC, 31 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSA up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:03USA +25%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 1 yard gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 11:03USA +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 5:42ULM +19%
Noah Flemmings 42 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Chambliss Kick)
- Q3 5:05USA +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 3 yards gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 13:08ULM +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush right for 29 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 14:36USA +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush left for 8 yards gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN #4 B.Davenport pass attempt failed
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. UL Monroe?
South Alabama 26, UL Monroe 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USA) was correct.
| USA | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| 362 | Total yards | 154 |
| 162 | Passing yards | 82 |
| 200 | Rushing yards | 72 |
| 24 | First downs | 9 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 1-9 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 17/23 | Comp/Att | 10/19 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 4.3 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 8-101 |
| 37:25 | Possession | 22:35 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:53 ULM go for it on 4th & 7 at USA 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:36USAKentrel Bullock 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–14
- Q3 5:05USABishop Davenport 3 Yd Run (Davis Little PAT failed)20–14
- Q3 10:03USABishop Davenport 1 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)14–14
- Q2 11:03USAKentrel Bullock 1 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:42ULMNoah Flemmings 42 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Chambliss Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:08ULMBraylon McReynolds 29 Yd Run (Jacob Chambliss Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ULM Elo 998, USA Elo 1375 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ULM +12.7 (21% to win) — 8.7 points clear of USA's market line of +4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouth Alabama leads 7–5 · South Alabama has won 4 straight · 17% have been one-possession games
| USA | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.2 (#104) | CORE overall | -15.2 (#108) |
| -4 / +11 | offense / defense | -8 / +7 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 1.37 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 2.91 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →