South Alabama vs. North Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsUNT
- Q4 1:59UNTCaleb Hawkins 27 Yd Run (Wyatt Young Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)22–36
- Q4 6:11USAKentrel Bullock 2 Yd Run (Bishop Davenport Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–28
- Q3 2:08UNTDrew Mestemaker 4 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)14–28
- Q3 6:00USARod Gibbs 1 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)14–21
- Q3 10:25UNTCaleb Hawkins 68 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:19UNTCaleb Hawkins 6 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:04UNTMiles Coleman 18 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:40USABishop Davenport 2 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBishop Davenport 17/34, 195 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushPJ Martin 10 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecDevin Voisin 5 REC, 97 YDS
- PassDrew Mestemaker 14/26, 234 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCaleb Hawkins 16 CAR, 140 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCaleb Hawkins 2 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:07UNT +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hawkins,Caleb rush left for 8 yards gain to the USA09 (Myrick,Blayne) PENALTY UNT Holding (Yanta II,Tay) 10 yards from USA17 to USA27. NO PLAY
- Q4 6:11USA +14%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Davenport Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q1 14:55USA +8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 4 yds to the USA 29
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. North Texas?
South Alabama 22, North Texas 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
| USA | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 396 | Total yards | 429 |
| 192 | Passing yards | 234 |
| 204 | Rushing yards | 195 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-19 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 18/35 | Comp/Att | 14/26 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-80 | Penalties | 5-41 |
| 32:28 | Possession | 27:32 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:18 USA go for it on 4th & 15 at USA 46. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.66 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:59UNTCaleb Hawkins 27 Yd Run (Wyatt Young Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)22–36
- Q4 6:11USAKentrel Bullock 2 Yd Run (Bishop Davenport Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–28
- Q3 2:08UNTDrew Mestemaker 4 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)14–28
- Q3 6:00USARod Gibbs 1 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)14–21
- Q3 10:25UNTCaleb Hawkins 68 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:19UNTCaleb Hawkins 6 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:04UNTMiles Coleman 18 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:40USABishop Davenport 2 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1601, USA Elo 1445 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT -8.6 (73% to win) — 3.9 points clear of USA's market line of -12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USA | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.2 (#104) | CORE overall | +11.9 (#34) |
| -4 / +11 | offense / defense | +18 / +6 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 4.00 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →