| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 7 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| UNT | 7 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 36 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNT Elo 1601, USA Elo 1445) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNT -8.6 (74% to win) — 3.9 points of value on USA versus the market line of -12.5.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = USA ahead, below = UNT ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- UNT rush offense (0.33 PPA) vs. USA rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge UNT.
- UNT pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. USA pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge UNT.
- USA rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. UNT rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge UNT.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UNT up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. North Texas?
South Alabama 22, North Texas 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.