Center Parc StadiumConference gameClosing line: USA +-6 · USA covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 21 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 38 |
| GAST | 14 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 31 |
Team stats
USAthis game · better side highlightedGAST
468
Total yards
440280
Passing yards
241188
Rushing yards
19920
First downs
238-14 · 57%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
GAST 1097
USA 1410
Projected spread
GAST +10.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
USA
77% to win
Market spread
GAST +6
sportsbook line
Model edge
USA
4.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
23%
GAST · market 34%
Our model blends Elo ratings (GAST Elo 1097, USA Elo 1410) plus home-field advantage. That projects GAST +10.1 (23% to win) — 4.1 points of value on USA versus the market line of +6.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
GAST (top)USA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: GAST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- USA pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. GAST pass defense (0.43 allowed) — edge GAST.
- GAST rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. USA rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge USA.
- GAST pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. USA pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge USA.
Drive-by-drive
USA 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →GAST 5/10 scoring drives
GASTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 2Q1
USATD10 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q1
GASTTD3 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USA up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
USA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. Georgia State?
South Alabama 38, Georgia State 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had USA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.