South Alabama vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsGAST
- Q4 1:49USAKentrel Bullock 4 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)38–31
- Q4 5:39USADavis Little 23 Yd Field Goal 31–31
- Q4 9:38GASTGrant Hollier 11 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Cameran Brown Pass to Dennis Murray Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)28–31
- Q4 14:56GASTTed Hurst 5 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–23
- Q3 8:04GASTLiam Rickman 25 Yd Field Goal 28–17
- Q2 7:55USABishop Davenport 3 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)28–14
- Q1 2:12USAKentrel Bullock 6 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)21–14
- Q1 3:55GASTDennis Murray Jr. 52 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Liam Rickman Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:12USAJeremy Scott 74 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:15GASTTed Hurst 70 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Liam Rickman Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:40USABrendan Jenkins 18 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBishop Davenport 16/22, 280 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKentrel Bullock 20 CAR, 113 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJeremy Scott 3 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCameran Brown 19/33, 241 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordon Simmons 11 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecTed Hurst III 5 REC, 110 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSA up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:49USA +56%
PENALTY USA Delay Of Game 5 yards from GSU03 to GSU08. NO PLAY
- Q4 9:38GAST +53%
No Huddle #8 C.Brown pass complete short middle to #85 G.Hollier caught at USA00, for 11 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #23 D.Murray Jr. pass attempt Successful
- Q4 5:39USA +34%
#35 D.Little field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD
- Q4 4:11GAST +26%
No Huddle-Shotgun #30 R.Amos rush left for 4 yards gain (-4) to the GSU40 fumbled by #30 R.Amos at GSU40 forced by #20 T.Johnson recovered by USA #2 J.Henderson at GSU…
- Q4 14:56GAST +16%
C. Brown pass to T. Hurst for 5 yds, for a TD
- Q1 3:55GAST +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Brown pass complete short right to #23 D.Murray Jr. caught at USA43, for 52 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. Georgia State?
South Alabama 38, Georgia State 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USA) was correct.
| USA | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 468 | Total yards | 440 |
| 280 | Passing yards | 241 |
| 188 | Rushing yards | 199 |
| 20 | First downs | 23 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 16/22 | Comp/Att | 19/33 |
| 12.7 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 30:03 | Possession | 29:57 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:37 GAST punt on 4th & 2 at GAST 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:49USAKentrel Bullock 4 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)38–31
- Q4 5:39USADavis Little 23 Yd Field Goal 31–31
- Q4 9:38GASTGrant Hollier 11 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Cameran Brown Pass to Dennis Murray Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)28–31
- Q4 14:56GASTTed Hurst 5 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–23
- Q3 8:04GASTLiam Rickman 25 Yd Field Goal 28–17
- Q2 7:55USABishop Davenport 3 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)28–14
- Q1 2:12USAKentrel Bullock 6 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)21–14
- Q1 3:55GASTDennis Murray Jr. 52 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Liam Rickman Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:12USAJeremy Scott 74 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:15GASTTed Hurst 70 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Liam Rickman Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:40USABrendan Jenkins 18 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1097, USA Elo 1410 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST +10.1 (26% to win) — 4.1 points clear of USA's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia State leads 5–4 · 56% have been one-possession games
| USA | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.2 (#104) | CORE overall | -16.7 (#117) |
| -4 / +11 | offense / defense | -6 / +11 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 1.62 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 3.54 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →