| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| TCU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TCU Elo 1713, SMU Elo 1711) plus home-field advantage. That projects TCU -2.5 (57% to win) — 4.0 points of value on SMU versus the market line of -6.5.
TCU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
SMU 24, TCU 35.
Yes — the model's pick (TCU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TCU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 70 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 44 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 27 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
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